Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Lee, Yoong Hon and Parinduri, Rasyad (2013): Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design.

Abstract

We examine whether the three-point rule—the increase in rewards for a win from two- to three points that FIFA adopted in 1995—makes Bundesliga games become more exciting. Using regression discontinuity design as the empirical strategy, we do not find evidence that the three-point rule makes games more decisive, increases the number of goals, or decreases goal differences. We only find some evidence that the three-point rule increases the second-half goals of losing first-half teams. Overall, our results suggest that, in the case of Bundesliga games, the three-point rule does not work as FIFA intended.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: three-point rule; soccer; regression discontinuity design
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

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