Asongu, Simplice A (2013): How would monetary policy matter in the proposed African monetary unions? Evidence from output and prices.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_48496.pdf Download (496kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We analyze the effects of monetary policy on economic activity in the proposed African monetary unions. Findings broadly show that: (1) but for financial efficiency in the EAMZ, monetary policy variables affect output neither in the short-run nor in the long-term and; (2) with the exception of financial size that impacts inflation in the EAMZ in the short-term, monetary policy variables generally have no effect on prices in the short-run. The WAMZ may not use policy instruments to offset adverse shocks to output by pursuing either an expansionary or a contractionary policy, while the EAMZ can do with the ‘financial allocation efficiency’ instrument. Policy implications are discussed.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | How would monetary policy matter in the proposed African monetary unions? Evidence from output and prices |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E59 - Other O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa |
Item ID: | 48496 |
Depositing User: | Simplice Asongu |
Date Deposited: | 21 Jul 2013 19:38 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 09:55 |
References: | Agénor, P. R., McDermott, C. J. and Prasad, E., S. (2000): “Macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Some stylized facts”. World Bank Economic Review, 14(2), pp. 251–286. Agénor, P, R., McDermott, C. J. and Ucer, E. M. (1997): “Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey”. IMF Working Paper 97/1. Alagidede, P., Coleman, S. and Cuestas, J. C. (2011): “Inflationary shocks and common economic trends: Implications for West African Monetary Union membership”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Forthcoming. Angeloni, I. and Dedola, L. (1999): “From the ERM to the Euro: New evidence on economic and policy among EU countries”. European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 4 Asongu, S. A. (2012a): “Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Convergence Analysis”, African Journal of Economic and Management Studies: Forthcoming. Asongu, S. A. (2012b): “REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union”. African Governance and Development Institute Working Paper. Asongu, S. A. (2012c): “African Financial Development Dynamics: Big Time Convergence”. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies: Forthcoming. Asongu, S. A. (2012d): “African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment”. Journal of African Business: Forthcoming. Asongu, S. A. (2013a): “Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa: What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?”. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 5(1), pp. 39-60. Asongu, S. A. (2013b): “Correcting inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals: which adjustments matter in Africa”. Journal of African Business: Forthcoming. Asongu, S. A. (2013c): “Real and Monetary Policy Convergence: EMU Crisis to the CFA zone”, Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 5(1), pp. 20-38. Asongu, S. A. (2013d): “Investment and Inequality in Africa: which financial channels are good for the poor?”, African Finance Journal: Forthcoming. Bae, S., Jensen, M. and Murdock, S. (2005): “Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model”. Journal of Macroeconomics, 27(2), pp. 257-274. Bae, S. and Ratti, R. (2000): “Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46, pp. 581-604. Bernanke, B. and Mihov, I., (1998): “The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality”. Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy, 49, pp. 149-194. Bhaduri, S. and Durai, S. R. S. (2012): “A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression”, MPRA Paper No. 38036. Blinder, A. S. (1987): “Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures”. The Economic Journal, 97, pp. 327-352. Bordo, M. D. and Jeanne, O. (2002): “Monetary policy and asset prices: does "benign neglect" make sense?” International Finance, 5(2), pp. 139-164. Buigut, S. K. and Valev, N. T. (2005): “Is the Proposed East African Monetary Union an Optimal Currency Area? A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis”. World Development, 33(12), pp. 260-267. Bullard, J. (1999:. “Testing long-run neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 81(6), pp. 57-78. Camarero, M. and Tamarit, C. (2002): “A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate”. Journal of Macroeconomics. 24, pp. 371-393. Celasun, O. and Justiniano, A. (2005): “Synchronization of output fluctuations in West Africa: Implications for monetary unification”. IMF Working Paper. De Avila, D. R. (2003): “Finance and Growth in the EU: New Evidence from the Liberalization and Harmonization of the Banking Industry”. European Central Bank, Working Paper No. 266. Debrun, X., Masson, P. and Pattillo, C. (2005). “Monetary union in West Africa: Who might gain, who might lose and why?”. Canadian Journal of Economics, 38(2), pp. 454-481. Dornbusch, R. (2001). “Fewer monies, better monies”. American Economic Review, 91(2), pp. 238-242. Dwyer, G. P. & Hafer, R. W. (1999): “Are Money Growth and Inflation still Related” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter, pp. 32-43. Engle, R. F. and Granger, W. J. (1987): “Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing”. Econometrica, 55, pp. 251-276. Fouda, O. J. P. (2009): “The excess liquidity of banks in Franc zone: how to explain the paradox in the CEMAC”, Revue Africaine de l’Integration, 3(2), pp. 1-56. Frankel, J. Schmukler, S. and Serven, L. (2004): “Global transmission of interest rates: Monetary independence and currency regime”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(5), pp. 701-733. Gagnon, J. and Ihrig, J. (2004) : “Monetary policy and exchange rate pass through”, International Discussion Paper, Federal Board, Washington, DC. Ganev, G. Y., Molnar, K., Rybinski, K. and Wozniak, P. (2002): “Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe”. Report No. 52. Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), Warsaw. Gerlach, S. and Svensson, L. (2003): “Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: a Case for Monetary Indicators?”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(8), pp. 1649-1672. Ghironi, F. and Rebucci, A. (2000): “Monetary rules for emerging market economies”, Boston College Economics Department. Working Paper No. 476. Gries, T., Kraft, M. and Meierrieks, D. (2009): “Linkages between financial deepening, trade openness, and economic development: causality evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa”. World Development, 37(12), pp. 1849-1860. Hafer, R. W. and Kutan, A. (2002): “Detrending and the money–output link: International evidence”. Southern Economic Journal, 69(1), pp. 159–174. Hayo, B. (1999): “Money–output Granger causality revisited: An empirical analysis of EU countries”, Applied Economics, 31(11), pp. 1489–1501. Hendrix, C., Haggard, S. and Magaloni, B. (2009): “Grievance and Opportunity: Food Prices, Political Regime and Protest”, Paper prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association Convention, New York (August, 2009). Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003): “Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels”. Journal of Econometrics, 115, pp. 53-74. Kao, C. (1999): “Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data”. Journal of Econometrics, 90, pp. 1–44. Khan, M. S., (2011): “The Design and Effects of Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Journal of African Economies, 20(suppl_2), pp. -ii35. Leeper E. M. and Roush, J. E. (2002): “Putting ‘M’ back into Monetary Policy”. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 35(6), pp. 1217-1256. Levin, A., Lin, C. F. and Chu, C. S. (2002): “Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties”. Journal of Econometrics, 108, pp. 1-24. Liew, V. K. (2004): “Which lag selection criteria should we employ?”. Economics Bulletin,3(33), pp. 1-9. Lucas, R. E. (1980): “Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money”. American Economic Review,70, pp. 1005-1014. Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999): “A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, pp. 631-52. Mishkin, F. S. (2002): “The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy”. International Finance, 5(2), pp. 213-227. Mkenda, B. K. (2001): “Is EA an optimum currency area?”. Working Papers in Economics, No. 41. School of Economics and Commercial Law, Goteborg University. Moosa, I. (1997): “Testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: the case of India”. Journal of Development Economics, 53, pp. 139-155. Nogueira, R. P. (2009): “Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies”, Economics Bulletin, 29(3), pp. 2432-2437. Olekalns, N. (1996): “Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money”. Economics Letters, 50, pp. 393-398. Pedroni, P. (1999): “Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue. pp. 653-670. Roffia, B. and Zaghini, A. (2008): “Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics”, Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione, Working Paper No. 657. Saxegaard, M. (2006): “Excess liquidity and effectiveness of monetary policy: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa”, IMF Working Paper 06/115. Serletis, A. and Koustas, Z. (1998): “International evidence on the neutrality of money”.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 30(1) p. 1-25. Starr, M. (2005): “Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices”. Journal of Comparative Economics, 33, pp. 441-461. Stock J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1999): “Forecasting Inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), pp. 293-335. Trecroci, C. and Vega-Croissier, J. L. (2000): “The information content of M3 for future inflation”, ECB Working Paper No. 33. Tsangarides, C. G. and Qureshi, M. S. (2008): “Monetary Union Membership in West Africa: A Cluster Analysis”. World Development, 36(7), pp. 1261-1279. Von Braun, J. (2008): “Rising Food Prices: Dimension, Causes, Impact and Responses”. Key Note Address at World Food Programme (9th April 2008). <http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/resources/wfp175955.pdf> (accessed: 21.01.12). Weeks, J. (2010): “Why Monetary Policy is Irrelevant in Africa South of the Sahara”, School of Oriental and African Studies, Center for Development and Policy Research, Development Viewpoint No. 53. http://www.soas.ac.uk/cdpr/publications/dv/file59766.pdf (accessed: 29/10/2012). Willett, T. D. (2011): “Some Lessons for Economists from the Financial Crisis”. In Indian Growth and Development Review, 3(2), pp. 186-208. Willett, T. D. and Srisorn, N. (2011, June): “Some Lessons for Asia from the Euro Crisis”, The Claremont Colleges, Workshop on Global Growth and Economic Governance Implications for Asia: George Mason University. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/48496 |