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Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc

Bouoiyour, Jamal and Rey, Serge (2005): Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc.

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Abstract

We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000. We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows, i.e. the exports and the imports. The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco

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