Expansion of Rebellion: From Periphery to Heartland

Nakao, Keisuke (2013): Expansion of Rebellion: From Periphery to Heartland.

Abstract

While the theoretical literature maintains that strategic coordination is one of the keys to successful rebellion, anti-governmental campaigns are not necessarily synchronized across rebel groups in observed civil wars. To resolve this discrepancy, we develop a dynamic and spatial model of rebellion that illustrates patterns of contagious challenges against a government. As battles evolve, more rebels are inclined to "bandwagon," joining the ongoing war because the government is gradually revealed to be weak and because accumulated challenges shift the balance of power away from the government. Our theory also addresses why rebel movements often spread across the periphery and can eventually reach the heartland as if a siege shrinks. We delineate four geographic patterns of rebellion and then classify into them the Yugoslav Wars and other historical incidents.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: bandwagoning, geopolitics, expansion of rebellion
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances ; Revolutions; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and James A. Robinson. 2000. "Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, and Growth in Historical Perspective." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 115(4): 1167-1199.

Acemoglu, Daron, and James A. Robinson. 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions." American Economic Review. 91(4): 938-963.

Alt, James E., Randall L. Calvert, and Brian D. Humes. 1988. "Reputation and Hegemonic Stability: A Game-Theoretic Analysis." American Political Science Review. 82(2): 445-466.

Blainey, Geoffrey. 1988. The Causes of War. 3rd ed. London: Macmillan Press.

Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Boulding, Kenneth E. 1962. Conflict and Defense: A General Theory. New York: Harper Torchbooks.

Buhaug, Halvard, and Scott Gates. 2002. "The Geography of Civil War." Journal of Peace Research. 39(4): 417-433.

von Clausewitz, Carl. [1832] 1976. On War. Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

DeRouen Jr., Karl R., and David Sobek. 2004. "The Dynamic of Civil War Duration and Outcome." Journal of Peace Research. 41(3): 303-320.

Dufraisse, Roger. 1992. Napoleon. Translated by Steven Englund. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Ellis, Geoffrey James. 2003. The Napoleonic Empire. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Fearon, James D. 1995. "Rationalist Explanations for War." International Organization. 49(3): 379-414.

Fearon, James D. 1998. "Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict." In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict. Edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Fearon, James D. 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?" Journal of Peace Research. 41(3): 275-301.

Fearon, James D. 2007. "Fighting Rather Than Bargaining." Unpublished paper.

Fearon, James D. 2011. "Self-Enforcing Democracy." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 126(4): 1661-1708.

Filson, Darren, and Suzanne Werner. 2002. "A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration, and Outcome of War." American Journal of Political Science. 46(4): 819-37.

Haldi, Stacy Bergstrom. 2003. Why Wars Widen: A Theory of Predation and Balancing. Portland: Frank Cass.

Houya, Toru. 2007. Sensou no Nihonshi 18: Boshin Sensou. [Japanese History of Wars 18: Boshin War.] Tokyo: Yoshikawa Koubun Kan.

Independent International Commission on Kosovo. 2000. The Kosovo Report: Conflict, International Response, Lessons Learned. New York. Oxford University Press.

Jackson, Matthew O., and Massimio Morelli. 2011. "The Reasons for Wars - an Updated Survey." In Christopher J. Coyne and Rachel L. Mathers, eds., The Handbook on the Political Economy of War. Northampton: Elgar Publishing.

Lake, David A., and Donald Rothchild. 1998. "Spreading Fear: The Genesis of Transnational Ethnic Conflict." In David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds., The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Licklider, Roy A. 1995. "The Consequences of Negotiated Settlement in Civil Wars, 1945-93." American Political Science Review. 89(3): 681-90.

Lentz, Thierry. 2005. Napoleon: "My Ambition Was Great." Translated by Laurel Hirsch. New York: Harry N. Abrams.

Mackinder, Halford J. 1942. Democratic Ideals and Reality. New York: Henry Holt and Company.

Mertus, Julie A. 1999. Kosovo: How Mith and Truths Started a War. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Olson, Mancur, Jr. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Powell, Robert. 1999. In the Shadow of Power. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Powell, Robert. 2004. "Bargaining and Learning While Fighting." American Journal of Political Science. 48(2): 344-361.

Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Reiter, Dan. 2003. "Exploring the Bargaining Model of War." Perspectives on Politics. 1(1): 27-43.

Rothenberg, Gunther. 1999. The Napoleonic Wars. London: Cassell.

Sasaki, Suguru. 1994. Boshin Sensou: Haisha no Meiji Ishin. [Boshin War: Losers' Meiji Restoration.] Tokyo: Chuo Koron Sha.

Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Slantchev, Branislav L. 2003. "The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiation." American Political Science Review. 97(4): 621-32.

Spykman, Nocholas J. 1944. The Geography of the Peace. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company.

Sudetic, Chuck. 1991a. "Croatia Votes for Sovereignty and Confederation." New York Times. May 19. A3.

Sudetic, Chuck. 1991b. "2 Yugoslav States Vote Independence to Press Demands." New York Times. June 26. A1.

Wagner, Harrison R. 2000. "Bargaining and War." American Journal of Political Science. 44(3): 469-84.

Walter, Barbara F. 2006a. "Information, Uncertainty, and the Decision to Secede." International Organization. 60: 105-135.

Walter, Barbara F. 2006b. "Building Reputation: Why Governments Fight Some Separatists but Not Others." American Journal of Political Science. 50(2): 313-330.

Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Weingast, Barry R. 1995. "The Economic Role of Political Institutions: Market Preserving Federalism and Economic Development." Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization. 11(1): 1-31.

Weingast, Barry R. 1997. "The Political Foundation of Democracy and the Rule of Law." American Political Science Review 91(2): 245-263.

Weingast, Barry R. 2005. "The Constitutional Dilemma of Economic Liberty." Journal of Economic Perspectives 19(3): 89-108.