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Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente

Saadaoui, Jamel (2012): Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente.

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Abstract

Since the mid-1990s, we observe a global increase of current account imbalances. In 2007, before the climax of the financial crisis, they reached 2% of world GDP in absolute value. At the global level, the persistence of large current account imbalances is a threat to the macroeconomic and macrofinancial stability. This thesis analyses this phenomenon of global imbalances by using two complementary approaches: equilibrium exchange rates models and stock-flow consistent models. These two approaches can be considered as complementary insofar as they analyze the same problem from a different point of view. Equilibrium exchange rate models and particularly the FEER approach introduced by Williamson (1994) try to calculate exchange rate variations needed to reach a sustainable current account balance. Stock-flow consistent models à la Godley-Lavoie (2007) seek to analyze adjustments in terms of level of output and exchange rate dynamics in a context of imbalances. A return of large imbalances is not excluded. It appears that an international monetary cooperation aimed at preventing the return of large imbalances at the world and intra-European levels is a necessary condition to ensure global recovery.

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