The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis

Nath, Golaka (2013): The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis.

Abstract

Forward exchange rate bias explanation generally falls into two categories – assumption of rational expectation resulting in a risk premium and expectation errors which is systematic. The paper tests the bias in the Indian forward exchange markets using one-month and three month forward contracts. The study finds that the three month contracts have larger prediction errors than the one-month contracts. The also paper finds that the prediction errors have information content which leads to assume the presence of risk premium. The study also finds that risk one-month contracts have lesser variability vis-à-vis the three month contracts.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: forward exchange rate, India, CCIL, bias, puzzle, exchange rate premium, exchange rate
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G13 - Contingent Pricing ; Futures Pricing; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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