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Una nota sobre el exceso de oferta de viviendas y la duración del ajuste del sector

Fuentes Castro, Daniel (2009): Una nota sobre el exceso de oferta de viviendas y la duración del ajuste del sector. Published in: Boletín Económico de Información Comercial Española No. 2958 : pp. 15-24.

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Abstract

Housing construction has been fueled in recent years by a speculative process that has ended up generating an extraordinary oversupply. The aim of this study is to quantify the gap between supply and demand for housing in the Spanish economy between 1996 and 2007. Different estimates of the duration of the sector adjustment are provided. We reflect on the importance of residential property sales for speculative reasons or motives. Among other results, it is concluded that the market will not empty until the third quarter of 2012 (under the assumption of current development of housing demand), as long as the sector adjusts its supply at current demand growth.

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