The causal link between Polish stock market and key macroeconomic aggregates

Gurgul, Henryk and Lach, Łukasz (2010): The causal link between Polish stock market and key macroeconomic aggregates. Published in: Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung und Praxis , Vol. 4, (2010): pp. 367-383.

Abstract

This paper with the application of linear, nonlinear and long–run Granger causality tests, examines the causal links between the main Polish market price index (WIG) of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and four macroeconomic aggregates, namely the value of sold industrial production, the unemployment rate, the interest rate and the rate of inflation using monthly data for the period from January 1998 to June 2008. We found a bidirectional linear causal relationship between the stock market index and sold industrial production and strong evidence of linear and nonlinear Granger causality from changes in the interest rate to fluctuations in the stock market index. Furthermore, all examined macroeconomic variables were found to have a long-run causal influence on the performance of the stock market.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: stock market, macroeconomic aggregates, cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality, market efficienc
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading

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