Perspective ale ţintirii inflaţiei

Dumitriu, Ramona and Stefanescu, Razvan (2014): Perspective ale ţintirii inflaţiei.

Abstract

This paper explores some recent challenges for the inflation targeting. The circumstances are different for the emerging market countries and for the industrialized ones. In many emerging market countries the central banks adopted more or less formally the inflation targeting, in order to gain appreciation from the international financial institutions. Most of these central banks announced the applying of a flexible inflation targeting which could mask the time-inconsistent monetary policy. The vulnerability of the financial systems from emerging market countries undermines the inflation targeting credibility. In the new circumstances of the global crisis, a relaxed form of exchange rate targeting could be, for many of these countries, more adequate than the inflation targeting. For most of the industrialized countries the years of explicit or implicit inflation targeting coincided with a period of price stability. However, the recent global crisis revealed the danger of neglecting the financial stability. Moreover, the raise of unemployment could determine the governments of some industrialized countries to abandon the monetarist principles, which offered a favorable framework to inflation targeting, in the favor of Keynesian principles.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Perspectives of the Inflation Targeting
• Language: Romanian
• Keywords: Monetary Policy Strategies, Central Bank, Inflation Expectations.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies

References

Amato, J. D. & Gerlach, S. (2002), Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market and Transition Economies: Lessons after a Decade, European Economic Review, 46(4–5), pp. 781–90 (http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/311/ub_full_0_2_50_wp13_01.pdf)

Berlemann, Michael & Freese, Julia & Knoth, Sven (2012), Eyes Wide Shut? The U.S. House Market Bubble through the Lense of Statistical Process, Control CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3962 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2165772)

Bernanke, Ben, S. & Mishkin, Frederic, S. (1997), Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy? NBER Working Paper No. w5893 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=225675)

Bernanke, Ben, S. & Laubach, Thomas & Mishkin, Frederic, S. & Posen, Adam, S. (1999), Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Bernanke, Ben, S. (2013), A century of US central banking: Goals, frameworks, accountability, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(4), pp. 3-16 (http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/jep/2013/00000027/00000004/art00001)

Blejer, Mario, I. &. Leone, Alfredo, M & Rabanal, Pau & Schwartz, Gerd (2001), Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs, IMF Staff Paper, Vol 49, No. 3 (http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2002/03/pdf/blejer.pdf)

Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin (2012), Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Volume 2, George M. Constantinides, Milton Harris and Rene M. Stulz, eds., North Holland, October 2012; Economic Theory Center Working Paper No. 47-2012 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2103814)

Calvo, Guillermo, A. & Vegh, Carlos, A. (1992), Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction, Revista de Analisis Economico. Vol. 7 (1992), pp. 3-27.

Calvo, Guillermo & Mishkin, Frederic, S. (2003), The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 4.

Calvo, Guillermo, A. & Reinhart, Carmen, M. (2002), Fear Of Floating, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.

Calvo, Guillermo, A. (2006), Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort, Research Department Publications 4504, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department (http://www.iadb.org/res/publications/pubfiles/pubWP-596.pdf)

Cannata, Francesco & Quagliariello, Mario (2009), The Role of Basel II in the Subprime Financial Crisis: Guilty or Not Guilty? CAREFIN Research Paper No. 3/09 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1330417)

Carare, A. & Schaechter, A. & Stone, M. & Zelmer, M. (2002), Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting, IMF Working Paper 02/102 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02102.pdf)

Cecchetti, S. & Ehrmann, M. (2000), Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volaitility? An International Comparison of Policymakers Preferences and Outcomes, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers 69.

Chami, Ralph & Cosimano, Thomas F. (2001), Monetary Policy with a Touch of Basel, IMF Working Papers 01/151 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=278655)

Chiuri, Maria, Concetta & Ferri, Giovanni & Majnoni, Giovanni (2001), The macroeconomic impact of bank capital requirements in emerging economies - past evidence to assess the future, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 2605 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=632674)

Debelle, Guy & Masson, Paul & Savastano, Miguel & Sharma, Sunil (1998), Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy, IMF Working Paper Economic Issues No. 15 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues15/)

Delimatsis, Panagiotis (2012), Financial Innovation and Prudential Regulation – The New Basel III Rules, TILEC Discussion Paper No. 2012-016 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2044694)

Eichengreen, Barry & Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo (2002), Original Sin: The Pain, the Mystery, and the Road to Redemption, paper presented at the conference Currency and Maturity Matchmaking: Redeeming Debt from Original Sin, IADB, Washington, DC, November 21-22 (http://www.financialpolicy.org/financedev/hausmann2002.pdf)

Ferrero, Andrea & Gertler, Mark & Svensson, Lars, E. O. (2008), Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy NBER Working Paper No. w13906 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=111658)

Frankel, Jeffrey, A. (2010), Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey, NBER Working Paper No. w16125 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1630130)

Fratianni, Michele, U. & Marchionne, Francesco (2011), The Banking Bailout of the Subprime Crisis: Size and Effects PSL Quarterly Review, Vol. 63, No. 254, pp. 185-231 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1815131)

Gartner, Manfred & Jung, Florian & Griesbach, Björn (2011), Pigs or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies, U. of St. Gallen Law & Economics Working Paper No. 2011-06 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1816582)

Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander (2013), Bank Rescues and Bailout Expectations: The Erosion of Market Discipline During the Financial Crisis, SAFE Working Paper No. 36 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2365686)

Issing, Otmar (2011), Lessons for Monetary Policy: What Should the Consensus Be?, IMF Working Paper 11/97 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1197.pdf)

Jeanne, Olivier (2003), Why Do Emerging Market Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?, IMF Working Paper No. 03/177 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=880240)

Jonas, Jiri & Mishkin, Frederic S. (2003), Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects, NBER Working Paper No. 9667 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w9667.pdf)

Kroszner, Randall S. (1998), On the Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulatory Reform in Emerging Markets CRSP Working Paper No. 472 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=143555)

Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia (2010), Monetary policy in exceptional times, European Central Bank Working Paper Series No 1253 (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1253.pdf)

Levitin, Adam, J. & Wachter, Susan, M. (2012), Explaining the Housing Bubble, Georgetown Law Journal, Vol. 100, No. 4, pp. 1177-1258 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1669401)

Masson P. R., M. A. Savastano and S. Sharma (1997), The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries, IMF Working Paper 97/130 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97130.pdf)

Milesi-Ferretti, Gian, Maria & Razin, Assaf (1998), Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities, NBER Working Paper No. 6620 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w6620)

Mishkin, F., S. & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2001), One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know? in N. Loayza and R. Soto, eds. Inflation Targeting: Design, Performance, Challenges, Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, pp. 117–219.

Mishkin, Frederic, S. & Savastano, Miguel, A. (2001), Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2685 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=632753)

Mishkin, Frederic, S. (2001), From Monetary Targeting to Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Industrialized Countries World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2684 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=632752)

Mishkin, Frederic, S. (2004), Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?, NBER Working Paper 10646 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w10646)

Mishkin, Frederic, S. & Savastano, Miguel A. (2002), Monetary Policy Strategies for Emerging Market Countries: Lessons from Latin America, Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 44, Issue 2-3, pp. 45-82 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1673694)

Mishkin, Frederic S. & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus (2007), Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?, in Mishkin, Frederic, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (eds.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, vol. 11 of Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, Central Bank of Chile, pp. 291—372.

Mishkin, Frederic, S. (2011), Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis NBER Working Paper No. w16755 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w16755)

Mukherjee, Sanchita & Bhattacharya, Rina (2011), Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Emerging Market Economies, IMF Working Papers, WP/11/229 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11229.pdf)

Neri, Stefano (2013), The Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crisis on Bank Lending Rates in the Euro Area, Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 170 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=228480)

Ötker, Inci & Freedman, Charles (2010), Important Elements for Inflation Targeting for Emerging Economies, IMF Working Papers, WP/10/113 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1620247)

Phillips, Ronnie, J. & Roselli, Alessandro (2009), How to Avoid the Next Taxpayer Bailout of the Financial System: The Narrow Banking Proposal, Networks Financial Institute Policy Brief 2009-PB-05 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1459065)

Popa, Cristian & Boţel, Cezar & Antohi, Dorina & Udrea, Ioana & Grosu, Tudor & Copaciu, Mihai & Gălăţescu, Anca (2009), Ţintirea directă a inflaţiei în România, BNR, Caiete de Studii Nr. 25 (http://www.bnro.ro/PublicationDocuments.aspx?icid=6786)

Posen, Adam S. & Mishkin, Frederic, S. (1997), Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries. Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 3 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1016205)

Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo (2000), When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany (http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6982/)

Reinhart, Carmen M. (2010), This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises, NBER Working Paper (http://www.nber.org/papers/w15815.pdf)

Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth (2013), Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten, CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9750 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13266.pdf)

Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H. (2013), The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn’t Matter, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 103(3), pp. 55–60 (http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/Romer_and_Romer%20Fed_Anniversary_Session%20Manuscript.pdf)

Rudebusch, Glenn, D. & Svensson, Lars, E,. O. (1998), Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting NBER Working Paper No. w6512 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=226254)

Santos, João A. C. (2000), Bank Capital Regulation in Contemporary Banking Theory: A Review of the Literature BIS Working Paper No. 90 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=248314)

Scheinkman, Jose A. (2013), Speculation, Trading and Bubbles. Economic Theory Center Working Paper No. 050-2013 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227701)

Scherbina, Anna (2013), Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey, IMF Working Paper No. 13/45 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2229654)

Stone, Mark R. & Roger, Scott & Nordstrom, Anna & Shimizu, Seiichi & Kisinbay, Turgut & Restrepo, Jorge (2009), The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies, IMF Occasional Paper No. 267 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=22479.0)

Svensson, Lars, E., O. (1997a), Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets, NBER Working Paper No. w5797 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1833174)

Svensson, Lars, E., O. (1997b), Inflation Targeting in an Open Economy: Strict or Flexible Inflation Targeting?, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Working Paper No. G97/8 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=321784)

Svensson, Lars, E., O. (1998), Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule, NBER Working Paper No. w6790 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=139572)

Svensson, Lars, E., O. (2010), Inflation Targeting NBER Working Paper No. w16654 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1732924)

Tonveronachi, Mario (2007), Implications of Basel II for Financial Stability - Clouds are Darker for Developing Countries, PSL Quarterly Review, Vol. 60. No. 241, pp. 111-135 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2057528)

Walsh, Carl, E. (2011), The Future of Inflation Targeting, Economic Record, Vol. 87, pp. 23-36 (http://people.ucsc.edu/~walshc/MyPapers/econrecordr_ace.pdf)

Wang, P., & Wen, Y. (2012), Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), pp. 184-221 (http://static.squarespace.com/static/50c0f331e4b02ad9eb35bd11/t/50d4f24ce4b0b3be0fbc15f6/1356132940043/wang-wen-2012.pdf)

Woodford, Michael (2012), Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability, NBER Working Paper No. w17967 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w17967)