A Time-series Analysis of Impact of FDI on Economic Development In India during Post-reforms Era (1991-2010)

Das, Seshanwita and Das, Tapas (2012): A Time-series Analysis of Impact of FDI on Economic Development In India during Post-reforms Era (1991-2010). Published in: International Journal of Management, IT & Engineering , Vol. 2, No. 12 (December 2012): pp. 529-545.

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical association between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic development (GDP) in India during 20-year-period (1991-2010) in the post-reforms era. With help of time-series regression model, where GDP has been regressed on FDI, after making both the non-stationary series (FDI and GDP) stationary through 2nd differencing of Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, it has been found that FDI had a negative impact, and that too marginally significant, on India’s economic development during this period, which is contrary to the common belief. The negative impact has been substantiated by the fact the growth rate of FDI inflow into the economy during this period was greater than growth rate of GDP, which implies some unabsorbed capital remained in the economy, leading to inflationary pressure, which, in turn, caused fall in the development of the real sector further, establishing a negative impact of FDI on economic development.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Time Series Analysis, FDI, Economic Development
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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