Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

Mirdala, Rajmund (2013): Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices under Different Exchange Rate Regimes. Published in: Journal of Applied Economic Sciences , Vol. 8, No. 4 (December 2013): pp. 466-491.

Abstract

Responsiveness of exchange rates to external price shocks as well as their ability to serve as a traditional vehicle for a transmission of these shocks to domestic prices is affected by exchange rate arrangement adopted by monetary authorities. As a result, exchange rate volatility determines the overall dynamics of pass-through effects and associated absorption capability of exchange rate. Ability of exchange rates to transmit external (price) shocks to the national economy represents one of the most discussed areas relating to the current stage of the monetary integration in the European single market. The problem is even more crucial when examining crisis related redistributive effects. In the paper we analyze exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in the European transition economies. We estimate VAR model to investigate (1) responsiveness of exchange rate to the exogenous price shock to examine the dynamics (volatility) in the exchange rate leading path followed by the unexpected oil price shock and (2) effect of the unexpected exchange rate shift to domestic price indexes to examine its distribution along the internal pricing chain. To provide more rigorous insight into the problem of exchange rate pass-through to the domestic prices in countries with different exchange rate arrangements we estimate models for two subsequent periods 2000-2007 and 2000-2012. Our results suggest that there are different patterns of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices according to the baseline period as well as the exchange rate regime diversity.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, inflation, VAR, Cholesky decomposition, impulse-response function
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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