Transition to sustainability? Feasible scenarios towards a low-carbon economy

Bernardo, Giovanni and D'Alessandro, Simone (2014): Transition to sustainability? Feasible scenarios towards a low-carbon economy.

Abstract

This paper analyses different policies that may promote the transition towards a low-carbon economy. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies are identified: improvements in energy efficiency, the development of the renewable energy sector, and carbon capture and storage. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that the implementation of these strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators, such as the GDP growth rate, unemployment, labour share, carbon emissions, and renewable energy production. Scenario analysis shows that a number of tradeoffs between social, economic and environmental indicators emerge. Such tradeoffs undermine an `objective' definition of sustainability.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: sustainability, energy transition, system dynamics, scenario analysis.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q01 - Sustainable Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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