الارتباط الحركي بين الاستثمار في مؤسسات القطاع الحكومي والاستثمار الخاص عبر نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي: حالة الاقتصاد السعودي

Ghassan, Hassan and Alhajhoj, Hassan (2010): الارتباط الحركي بين الاستثمار في مؤسسات القطاع الحكومي والاستثمار الخاص عبر نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي: حالة الاقتصاد السعودي. Published in: Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences , Vol. 26, No. 1 (June 2010): pp. 1-26.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between investment in public sector institutions and private investment in the Saudi economy by using Structural VAR model for testing the dynamic crowding-out effect during the last four decades. Three fundamental variables are mobilized: the GDP, public investment and private investment. The linear relationship between structural shocks, which have an economic and financial interpretation, and the reduced random residuals has been established to evaluate the dynamic impacts. The findings show that the investment of the public sector institutions has an impact on the investment of private sector, and that the impulse response functions to the supply and demand shocks indicate that the crowding-out effect is verified in the short and long run.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Dynamic Relationship between the Investment in Public and Private Sectors Using an SVAR Model: Case of Saudi Arabia
• Language: Arabic
• Keywords: Investment, Private sector, Public sector, SVAR model, Saudi Arabia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity

References

1. شيبـي عبد الرحيم، بن بوزيان محمد و شكوري سيدي محمد، (2009) الآثار الاقتصادية الكلية لصدمات السياسة المالية بالجزائر: دراسة تطبيقية، ورقة 250-16 في المؤتمر السنوي 16 لمنتدى البحوث الاقتصادية، القاهرة، مصر.

2. غصان حسن بلقاسم و الهجهوج حسن رفدان، (2009) اختبار أثر مزاحمة الإنفاق الحكومي للإستثمار الخاص في الإقتصاد السعودي عبر المعاينة المعادة، المجلة العربية للعلوم الاقتصادية والادارية (العدد 4 القادم).

3. مصلحة الإحصائيات العامة والمعلومات، وزارة الاقتصاد والتخطيط الرياض، المملكة العربية السعودية، تقارير مختلفة.

4. مؤسسة النقد العربي السعودي، التقرير السنوي 43، 2007 الرياض، المملكة العربية السعودية.

5. Afonso, A. & R.M. Sousa )2009), The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis, Working Paper Series # 09, DE, UECE, Lisbon.

6. Afonso, A. & M. St. Aubyn )2008(, Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects, Working Paper Series # 864, European Central Bank, Germany.

7. Albatil, A.H. (2005), Government Budget Deficits and the Crowding out of Private Sector Investment in Saudi Arabia, KSU Journal (Managerial Sciences), 17(1), 1-28.

8. Amisano, G. & C. Giannini (1997), Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics, 2nd Edition, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

9. Atukeren, E. (2005), Interaction between Public and Private Investment: Evidences from Developing Countries, KYKLOS, 58(3):307-330.

10. Blanchard, O. & R. Perotti (2002), An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output, Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4): 1329-1368.

11. Breitung, J. & R. Brüggemann, & H. Lütkepohl (2004), Structural Vector Autoregressive modeling, In H. Lutkepohl and M. Kratzig (Eds.), Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK.

12. Buiter, W.H. (1977), Crowding-Out and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy, Journal of Public Economics, 7.

13. Chakraborty, L.S. (2007), Fiscal Deficit, Capital Formation, and Crowding out in India: Evidence from an Asymmetric VAR Model, The Levy Economics Institute and National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Bard College, Working Paper No. 518. India.

14. Erenburg, S.J. & M.E. Wohar (1995), Public and Private Investment are there Causal Linkages? , Journal of Macroeconomics, 17, 1-30.

15. Kamps, C. (2004), The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Public Capital: Theory and Evidence from OECD countries, Springer.

16. Lutkepohl, H. and M. Kratzig (2004), Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK.

17. Martinez, D. (2005), Linking Public Investment to Private Investment, Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces, E2001/04 Revision.

18. Mitra, Pritha (2006), Has Government Investment Crowded out Private Investment in India? , American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 96(2), 337-341.

19. Saeed, H. and A. Ali (2006), The Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment: A Disaggregated Analysis, The Pakistan Development Review 45(4): 639-663.

20. Voss, G.M. (2002), Public and Private Investment in the United States and Canada, Economic Modeling, 19, 641-664.