Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Spatial and scenario analyses of long distance coach transport in Italy.

Beria, Paolo and Grimaldi, Raffaele and Debernardi, Andrea and Ferrara, Emanuele and Laurino, Antonio (2014): Spatial and scenario analyses of long distance coach transport in Italy.

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Abstract

In Italy long distance coach services have long played a significant role in connecting the most dispersed part of the country to major destinations, giving an important contribution to social and geographical inclusion, but remaining limited in absolute numbers and receiving marginal attention by the general public and even policy makers. After years of stability, the industry is going to face radical changes in the next years since its liberalisation process, gradually started in 2007, was completed at the end of 2013, changing from exclusive concessions to non-exclusive authorisations. In this paper we perform some spatial and scenario analyses, with particular reference to competing transport modes and new potential markets. The industry supplied more than 88 million bus-km in 2012, serving about 2.6 billion passenger-km. The existing network, providing a particularly extensive service in the South and in the Centre of the country, directly serves 2/3 of Italian population. New opportunities are arising as a consequence of liberalisation, changes in competing modes (in particular long distance railway services) and changes in characteristics of part of the country also as a consequence of more recent internal migration phenomena. Coach services in 2013 are serving only 27,000 origin-destination, including indirect connection, out of about 115,000 formally allowed. Many relations, including some very important in terms of total mobility, are still unexplored and left to competing transport modes (rail and air). Our analyses suggest that the most promising relations for possible new services appear to be those among the Centre and the North-East of the country, with a polarisation on urban areas having limited rail services.

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