Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Feyen, Luc and Soria, Antonio and Lavalle, Carlo and Raes, Frank and Perry, Miles and Nemry, Françoise and Demirel, Hande and Rozsai, Máté and Dosio, Alessandro and Donatelli, Marcello and Srivastava, Amit Kumar and Fumagalli, Davide and Niemeyer, Stefan and Shrestha, Shailesh and Ciaian, Pavel and Himics, Mihaly and Van Doorslaer, Benjamin and Barrios, Salvador and Ibáñez, Nicolás and Forzieri, Giovanni and Rojas, Rodrigo and Bianchi, Alessandra and Dowling, Paul and Camia, Andrea and Libertà, Giorgio and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús and de Rigo, Daniele and Caudullo, Giovanni and Barredo, Jose-I. and Paci, Daniele and Pycroft, Jonathan and Saveyn, Bert and Van Regemorter, Denise and Revesz, Tamas and Vandyck, Toon and Vrontisi, Zoi and Baranzelli, Claudia and Vandecasteele, Ine and Batista e Silva, Filipe and Ibarreta, Dolores (2014): Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project. Published in: EUR – Scientific and Technical Research , Vol. 26586, (2014): -155 pp..

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Abstract

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). Under the reference simulation the annual total damages would be around €190 billion/year, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall annual EU damages are estimated to be due to the additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce annual climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP).

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