Forecasting Time-Varying Correlation using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model

Mapa, Dennis S. and Paz, Nino Joseph I. and Eustaquio, John D. and Mindanao, Miguel Antonio C. (2014): Forecasting Time-Varying Correlation using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model.

Abstract

Hedging strategies have become more and more complicated as assets being traded have become more interrelated to each other. Thus, the estimation of risks for optimal hedging does not involve only the quantification of individual volatilities but also include their pairwise correlations. Therefore a model to capture the dynamic relationships is necessary to estimate and forecast correlations of returns through time. Engle’s dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model is compared with other models of correlation. Performance of the correlation models are evaluated in this paper using only the daily log returns of the closing prices of the Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate and Philippine Stock Exchange index. Ultimately, Engle’s DCC model is adopted because of its consistency with expectations. Though generally negative, correlation between these two returns is not really constant as the results indicated. The forecast evaluation of the models was divided into in-sample and out-of-sample forecast performance with short-term (i.e., 22-day, 60-day, and 125-day) and medium-term (250-day and 500-day) rolling window correlations, or realized correlations, as proxies for the actual correlation. Based on the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the integrated DCC model showed optimal forecast performance for the in-sample correlation patterns while the mean-reverting DCC model had the most desirable forecast properties for dynamic long-run forecasts. Also, the Diebold-Mariano tests showed that the integrated DCC has greater predictive accuracy in terms of the 3-month realized correlations than the rest of the models.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: dynamic conditional correlation, Peso-Dollar exchange rate, PSE index, hedging
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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