Violation duration as a better way of VaR model evaluation : evidence from Turkish market portfolio

Kilic, Ekrem (2006): Violation duration as a better way of VaR model evaluation : evidence from Turkish market portfolio.

Abstract

Financial crisis those we have been experienced during last two decades encouraged the efforts of both academicians and the market participants to develop clear representations of the risk exposure of a �nancial institute. As a useful tool for measuring market risk of a portfolio, Value-at-Risk has emerged as the standard. However, there are several alternative Value-at-Risk implementations which may pro- duce signi�cantly di¤erent Value-at-Risk forecasts. Thus, evaluation of Value-at-Risk forecasts is as crucial as VaR itself. In this paper I will use the methodology which has described by Christoffersen and Pelletier[6] and I extended the methodology to create duration based analogous of unconditional coverage, conditional coverage and inde- pendence tests. I evaluated 14 Value-at-Risk implementation by using a Turkish Market portfolio which contain foreing currency, stock and bonds.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: Finecus Financial Software and Consultancy
• Language: English
• Keywords: Value-at-Risk; model evaluation; conditional cover- age; duration based coverage testing
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions

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