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Test de l’effet de stabilisation automatique par la modélisation SVAR sans contrainte de long terme

Ghassan, Hassan B. (2003): Test de l’effet de stabilisation automatique par la modélisation SVAR sans contrainte de long terme.

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to test the mechanism of automatic stabilization between the dynamics of real GDP-growth and budget deficit by using structural VAR methodology with quarterly macroeconomic data of Moroccan economy. The SVAR model allows us to test and evaluate the extent of those mechanisms. It exhibits also the conjunctural and structural components of budget deficit. From a methodological point of view, we avoid to impose long run constraints to adopt simple and efficient approach linking the short-term parameters. The empirical results show that the mechanisms of automatic stabilizing are checked in our sample. The historical decomposition permits us to determine the orientation of budget policy. This decomposition shows that since the finance crisis in 1983 the government respects in tendency a budgetary rule in the sense that the observed balance reflects automatic stabilization measures both of transitory and permanent nature.

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