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Test de l’équivalence Ricardienne par la Modélisation SVAR

Ghassan, Hassan B. (2003): Test de l’équivalence Ricardienne par la Modélisation SVAR. Published in: Revue de l'Institut National de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée , Vol. 21, (15 June 2004): pp. 17-33.

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The purpose of this paper is to test the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis REH by estimating a SVAR model. In this framework, we separate the co-movements of saving rate and budget deficit rate into two types of shocks, associated with structural parameters, as if we were looking for ‘’two needles in haystack’’. We avoid imposing formal short run and long run constraints, because this may overestimate the compensation rate and bias the estimation of structural multipliers. Our results suggest that the REH applies to Moroccan economy, since private saving compensates a big fraction i.e. 90 percent of the shock in budget deficit. This supports the interpretation that the large budget deficit, financed especially by debt, has been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates.

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