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Identifying and characterizing the business cycle: the case of Morocco

El Alaoui, Aicha (2014): Identifying and characterizing the business cycle: the case of Morocco.

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Abstract

In this paper, I describe the key features of the Moroccan business cycles during the period 1980:q1-2012:q1. In particular, I identify the chronologies in classical and growth cycles (expansion phase, contraction phase and full cycles in real gross domestic product). Using the modified BB algorithm, I find eight business cycles and the ninth is not yet achieved. Then, I analyse the main features in these cycles by applying the method of Harding and Pagan (2001). Therefore, I show that the Moroccan economy characterized by the average cumulative gain is more important than the cumulative loss and by the domination of expansion phases.

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