Briz, Teresa and Drichoutis, Andreas C. and Nayga, Rodolfo M. (2014): Detecting false positives in experimental auctions: A case study of projection bias in food consumption.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_57119.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
In this paper we argue that valuable information can be conveyed by looking at data coming from the training rounds of experimental auctions. As a case study, we use data from an experiment that seeks to elaborate on the mediating role of mood states on projection bias. Following a mood induction procedure, subjects are found to bid more under negative mood (as compared to positive mood) for products that are delivered in the future but bid less under negative mood for products that are delivered in present time. We show that if one had neglected insights gained from the training auction data, the researcher would have fallen prey to a case of a false positive result.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Detecting false positives in experimental auctions: A case study of projection bias in food consumption |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | projection bias; experimental auctions; type I error; false positive |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C90 - General |
Item ID: | 57119 |
Depositing User: | Andreas Drichoutis |
Date Deposited: | 05 Jul 2014 19:07 |
Last Modified: | 30 Sep 2019 06:12 |
References: | Ariely, D., G. Loewenstein, and D. Prelec (2003). "Coherent arbitrariness": Stable demand curves without stable preferences. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (1), 73{105. Corrigan, J. R., M. C. Rousu, and D. P. T. Depositario (2014). Do practice rounds affect experimental auction results? Economics Letters 123 (1), 42-44. Demont, M., P. Rutsaert, M. Ndour, W. Verbeke, P. A. Seck, and E. Tollens (2013). Experimental auctions, collective induction and choice shift: willingness-to-pay for rice quality in Senegal. European Review of Agricultural Economics 40 (2), 261-286. Demont, M., E. Zossou, P. Rutsaert, M. Ndour, P. Van Mele, and W. Verbeke (2012). Consumer valuation of improved rice parboiling technologies in Benin. Food Quality and Preference 23 (1), 63-70. Drichoutis, A. C., J. Rodolfo M. Nayga, and P. Lazaridis (2011). The role of training in experimental auctions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93 (2), 521-527. Duval, S. and R. Tweedie (2000). Trim and fill: A simple funnel-plot based method of testing and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analysis. Biometrics 56 (2), 455-463. Egger, M., G. D. Smith, M. Schneider, and C. Minder (1997). Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ 315 (7109), 629-634. Fanelli, D. and J. P. A. Ioannidis (2013). US studies may overestimate effect sizes in softer research. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Fisher, R. A. (1925). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd. Hoffman, E., D. J. Menkhaus, D. Chakravarti, R. A. Field, and G. D. Whipple (1993). Using laboratory experimental auctions in marketing research: A case study of new packaging for fresh beef. Marketing Science 12 (3), 318-338. Ioannidis, J. P. A. and T. A. Trikalinos (2007). An exploratory test for an excess of significant findings. Clinical Trials 4 (3), 245-253. Kaiser, H. F. (1960). Directional statistical decisions. Psychological Review 67 (3), 160-167. Kennedy, P. E. (2002). Sinning in the basement: What are the rules? The ten commandments of applied econometrics. Journal of Economic Surveys 16 (4), 569-589. Kessler, J. B. and S. Meier (2014). Learning from (failed) replications: Cognitive load manipulations and charitable giving. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 102 (0), 10-13. Kimball, A. W. (1957). Errors of the third kind in statistical consulting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 52 (278), 133-142. Lane, D. M. and W. P. Dunlap (1978). Estimating effect size: Bias resulting from the significance criterion in editorial decisions. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 31 (2), 107-112. Lang, P. J., M. M. Bradley, and B. N. Cuthbert (2008). International affective picture system (IAPS): Affective ratings of pictures and instruction manual. Technical report A-8, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. Loewenstein, G., T. O'Donoghue, and M. Rabin (2003). Projection bias in predicting future utility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4), 1209-1248. Maniadis, Z., F. Tufano, and J. A. List (2014). One swallow doesn't make a summer: New evidence on anchoring effects. American Economic Review 104 (1), 277-90. Menkhaus, D. J., G. W. Borden, G. D. Whipple, E. Hoffman, and R. A. Field (1992). An empirical application of laboratory experimental auctions in marketing research. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 17 (1), 44-55. Morawetz, U. B., H. De Groote, and S. C. Kimenju (2011). Improving the use of experimental auctions in Africa: Theory and evidence. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36 (2), 263-279. Orwin, R. G. (1983). A fail-safe N for effect size in meta-analysis. Journal of Educational Statistics 8 (2), 157-159. Robles, R. and F. Paez (2003). Estudio sobre la traduccion al espanol y las propiedades psicometricas de las escalas de afecto positivo y negativo (PANAS). Salud Mental 26 (1), 69-75. Rosenthal, R. (1979). The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results. Psychological Bulletin 86 (3), 638-641. Simmons, J. P., L. D. Nelson, and U. Simonsohn (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science 22 (11), 1359-1366. Simonsohn, U. (2013). Small telescopes: Detectability and the evaluation of replication results. Working paper, Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2259879 . Simonsohn, U., L. D. Nelson, and J. P. Simmons (2014). P-curve: A key to the file-drawer. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 143 (2), 534-547. Simonsohn, U., J. P. Simmons, and L. D. Nelson (2013). Anchoring is not a false-positive: Maniadis, Tufano, and List's (2014) 'failure-to-replicate' is actually entirely consistent with the original. Working paper, Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2351926. Vickrey, W. (1961). Counterspeculation, auctions, and competitive sealed tenders. Journal of Finance 16 (1), 8-37. Watson, D., L. A. Clark, and A. Tellegen (1988). Development and validation of brief measures of positive and negative affect: The PANAS scales. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54 (6), 1063-1070. Zhang, L. and A. Ortmann (2013). Exploring the meaning of significance in experimental economics. Australian School of Business Research Paper No. 2013 ECON 32. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/57119 |
Available Versions of this Item
-
Detecting false positives in experimental auctions: A case study of projection bias in food consumption. (deposited 05 Jul 2014 06:16)
- Detecting false positives in experimental auctions: A case study of projection bias in food consumption. (deposited 05 Jul 2014 19:07) [Currently Displayed]