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Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit

Bonciani, Dario (2014): Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit.

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Abstract

This paper provides empirical and theoretical evidence that uncertainty shocks have strong asymmetric effects on economic activity. Specifically, in the empirical analysis I find that uncertainty shocks dampen investment and consumption twice as much during recessions than in "normal" times. In the theoretical analysis I employ a sticky-prices general equilibrium model featuring external habit formation to show that the asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks can be explained by countercyclical fluctuations in precautionary savings.

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