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Analyse spatiale et géographique de l’effet du changement climatique sur la production des agrumes en Tunisie

Zouabi, Oussama (2015): Analyse spatiale et géographique de l’effet du changement climatique sur la production des agrumes en Tunisie.

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Abstract

This study investigates the direct and indirect effect of precipitation and temperature on the citrus production of governorate i and neighboring governorates by using a spatial modeling to allow for spatial effects, as well as individual and temporal effects of spatial autocorrelation. Results from Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) prove that the groundwater of the governorate i can be an effective solution for the farmer as long as the means are implemented so that he can exploit. Results also show that the effect of temperature through the hydric resources of governorate i and the neighboring governorates represent a negative spillover effect.

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