Determinants of Potato Prices and its Forecasting: A Case Study of Punjab, Pakistan

Anwar, Dr. Mumtaz and Shabbir, Dr. Ghulam and Shahid, M. Hassam and Samreen, Wajiha (2015): Determinants of Potato Prices and its Forecasting: A Case Study of Punjab, Pakistan.

Abstract

Potato figures among the principal crop in Pakistan. This paper describes the determinants of potato prices in Punjab, Pakistan. Annual data for the period 1998-2014 were analyzed to identify factors affecting the prices of potato. Results indicated that temperature and world oil prices were significantly affecting price. Seasonal variation of prices are also analyzed in this paper. This paper also use ARIMA and ARMA model to forecast the prices. These results suggest that temperature increase above the limit will lead to increase in prices and support prices also.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Whole sale potato prices, pricing factors, Seasonal Variation, determinants of potato, ARIMA & ARMA, forecasting.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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