Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico

Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis (2015): Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico. Published in: Análisis Económico , Vol. 30, No. 73 (2 May 2015): pp. 31-49.

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Currency crises, foreign exchange, fiscal sustainability, probit model
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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