Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico

Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis (2015): Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico. Published in: Análisis Económico , Vol. 30, No. 73 (2 May 2015): pp. 31-49.

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Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

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