Econometric Predictions From Demographic Factors Affecting Overall Health

Stacey, Brian (2015): Econometric Predictions From Demographic Factors Affecting Overall Health.

Abstract

Efforts to accurately predict health outcomes with a focus on informing policy makers of where to best spend limited resources have been made in the past. This paper builds on the efforts of those studies in an attempt to build an accurate predictor of health from readily available data. The American Time Use Survey (2010, 2012, and 2013) provides the majority of the data from which this model is built, and it is then tested via several methods.

The analysis finds that the existing freely available data is significant in its predictive power, however is missing too many predictors to reduce the confidence interval about each individual prediction to a point of bearing meaningful fruit. That does not eliminate the usefulness of the study however, as by reducing the confidence required and accepting that the data is used for predicting societal means, the model is able to accurately predict average outcomes. This paper further attempts to analyze state level date to provide a geographic target for public funds expenditures, and accomplishes this through the analysis of various risk factors by region.

Notable in this analysis is an attempt to correct for self-reporting errors. The literature review did not reveal any previous attempts to do so using a similar methodology (beyond recognizing that such errors exist and using robust methods to account for them), making this attempt possibly unique. The correction did not result in significantly different estimates, however that may be a result of the minimal resources applied to this small aspect of the analysis.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Health Outcomes, Health Econometrics, Health Prediction, Self-reporting Bias Correction
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C89 - Other; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I14 - Health and Inequality; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health

References

ATUS Tables. (2014, January 1). Retrieved September 27, 2015, from http://www.bls.gov/tus/tables.htm

Abu-Omar, K., & Rütten, A. (2008). Relation of leisure time, occupational, domestic, and commuting physical activity to health indicators in Europe. Preventive Medicine, 319-323. Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743508001539

American Time Use Survey-X extract builder. (n.d.). Retrieved September 27, 2015, from https://www.atusdata.org/

CDC Health Disparities and Inequalities Report. (2013, November 22). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/other/su6203.pdf

Caspersen, C., Powell, K., & Christenson, G. (1985, April 1). Physical activity, exercise, and physical fitness: Definitions and distinctions for health-related research. Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1424733/

Changing demographics implications for physicians, nurses, and other health workers. (2003). Rockville, Md.: U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration, Bureau of Health Professions, National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

Crimmins, E., & Cohen, B. (Eds.). (2011). Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries. Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.nap.edu/catalog/13089/explaining-divergent-levels-of-longevity-in-high-income-countries

Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject. (2015, January 1). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://data.bls.gov/

Fatoye, F. (2013). Editorial: Understanding of health economics among healthcare professionals. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 22, 2979-2980. Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://pn8vx3lh2h.search.serialssolutions.com/?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&rfr_id=info:sid/summon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Editorial: Understanding of health econ

Fletcher, M. (2013, March 10). Research Ties Economic Inequality to Gap in Life Expectancy. Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/research-ties-economic-inequality-to-gap-in-life-expectancy/2013/03/10/c7a323c4-7094-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_story.html

Fuchs, V. (2000). The future of health economics. Journal of Health Economics, 19(2), 141-157. Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://pn8vx3lh2h.search.serialssolutions.com/?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&rfr_id=info:sid/summon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The future of health economics&rft.jtitle

Glanz, K. (2002). Health behavior and health education: Theory, research, and practice (3rd ed.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Health Status and Risk Factors. (2013, May 30). Retrieved July 19, 2015.

Hummer, R., & Hernandez, E. (2013, June 1). The Effect of Educational Attainment on Adult Mortality in the U.S. Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.prb.org/Publications/Reports/2013/us-educational-attainment-mortality.aspx

Jiang, Y., & Hesser, J. (2006). Associations between health-related quality of life and demographics and health risks. Results from Rhode Island's 2002 behavioral risk factor survey. Health and Quality of Life Outcomes, 14(4). Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://www.hqlo.com/content/4/1/14

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 77, No. 6., 1121-1134. Retrieved October 31, 2015, from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.64.2655&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Kruschke, J. (2014, November 21). Doing Bayesian Data Analysis. Retrieved October 26, 2015.

Lleras-Muney, A. (2005). The Relationship between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States. Retrieved July 19, 2015.

Newell, S., Girgis, A., Sanson-Fisher, R., & Savolainen, N. (1999). The accuracy of self-reported health behaviors and risk factors relating to cancer and cardiovascular disease in the general population. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 17(3), 211-229. Retrieved October 28, 2015, from http://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(99)00069-0/pdf

Marmot, M. (2002). The Influence Of Income On Health: Views Of An Epidemiologist. Health Affairs, 31-46. Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/21/2/31.full.pdf html

Menec, V., & Chipperfield, J. (1997). Remaining Active in Later Life: The Role of Locus of Control in Seniors' Leisure Activity Participation, Health, and Life Satisfaction. Journal of Aging and Health, 105-125. Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://jah.sagepub.com.ezproxy.snhu.edu/content/9/1/105.full.pdf html

National Data. (2015, January 1). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&904=2014&903=58&906=a&905=1929&910=x&911=0

Olshansky, S., Antonucci, T., Berkman, L., Binstock, R., Boersch-Supan, A., Cacioppo, J., . . . Rowe, J. (2012). Differences In Life Expectancy Due To Race And Educational Differences Are Widening, And Many May Not Catch Up. Health Affairs, 31(8), 1803-1813. Retrieved July 16, 2015, from http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/31/8/1803.abstract

United States Census Bureau. (2014, January 1). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032014/health/h01_000.htm

Winkleby, M., Jatulis, D., Frank, E., & Fortmann, S. (1992). Socioeconomic Status And Health: How Education, Income, And Occupation Contribute To Risk Factors For Cardiovascular Disease. American Journal of Public Health, 816-820. Retrieved July 14, 2015, from http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.82.6.816