Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Prospects of Romania’s international investment position and financial stability risks

Georgescu, George (2016): Prospects of Romania’s international investment position and financial stability risks.

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Abstract

The paper aims to investigate the changes in Romania’s net international investment position (NIIP) and to evaluate the prospects of this position, having in view the country's road towards joining the Eurozone. Among the 11 key indicators of nominal and real convergence monitored by the European Commission (MIP Scoreboard) under the macroeconomic imbalances procedure, NIIP is the only one to which Romania stands above the indicative threshold (-57% of GDP in 2014 compared to the threshold of -35%). The study highlights the main driving factors that have led to the deterioration of NIIP during the last decade in Romania and the related risks to the financial stability. The comparative analysis of Romania’s NIIP with other EU Member Countries is shaping a picture of external assets and liabilities at the European level that may represent valuable benchmark points for their possible developments. The study found that, considering the strengthening of recent trends, which witnessed a decrease in external indebtedness and in the current account deficits, the net international investment position of Romania may return within the MIP prudential standard. Under the circumstances of a favorable internal and international environment and significant progresses in structural reforms, Romania could make significant steps in order to meet all the required convergence indicators and criteria for Eurozone accession during the next decade.

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