Pillai N, Vijayamohanan (2008): Loss of Load Probability of a Power System.

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Abstract
By virtue of the vital nature of electric power, both to our economic and personal well being, a power system is expected to supply electrical energy as economically as possible, and with a high degree of quality and reliability. The developed countries in general place higher reliability standards on the performance of electricity supply. However, there has been no significant study in the context of the Indian power sector to analyze reliability in terms of loss of load probability; the technical appraisal of the State power systems in general is confined to examining the plant load factor (PLF) as a measure of capacity utilization only. The present study is a modest attempt to evaluate the reliability of the Kerala power system in the framework of a theoryinformed methodology – the first of its kind.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Loss of Load Probability of a Power System 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Loss of load probability, reliability, power system, Kerala 
Subjects:  Q  Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4  Energy > Q41  Demand and Supply ; Prices C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4  Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C44  Operations Research ; Statistical Decision Theory 
Item ID:  6953 
Depositing User:  Vijayamohanan Pillai N 
Date Deposited:  01. Feb 2008 10:36 
Last Modified:  10. Aug 2015 05:39 
References:  1) Calabrese, G. (1947). `Generating Reserve Capacity Determined by the Probability Method’, AIEE Transactions. Vol. 66, pp. 143950. 2) Gnedenko, B. V., Belyayev, Y. K., and Solovyev, A. D. (1969). Mathematical Method of Reliability Theory. Academic Press, New York. Chapter 2. 3) Kendall, M. G., and Stuart, A. (1967). The Advanced Theory of Statistics. Vol. II, 2nd Edition, Hafner, New York. Chapter 18. 4) Pillai, N. Vijayamohanan. (1992). Seasonal TimeofDay Pricing of Electricity under Uncertainty – A Marginalist Approach to Kerala Power System. Unpublished Ph. D. Thesis. University of Madras, Chennai.. 5) Shooman, M. L. (1968). Probabilistic Reliability: An Engineering Approach. McGrawHill, New York. Chapter 6. 6) Telson, M. L. (1975). `The Economics of Alternative Levels of Reliability for Electric Power Generation System’, The Bell Journal of Economics. Vol. 6, pp. 67994. 7) Vardi, Joseph and AviItzhak, Benjamin (1981). Electric Energy Generation: Economics, Reliability and Rates. The MIT Press, Cambridge and London. 8) Zehna, P. (1966) ‘Invariance of Maximum Likelihood Estimation’, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 37, p. 744. 
URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/6953 