Logo
Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

Lehmann, Robert and Wohlrabe, Klaus (2016): Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany.

[thumbnail of MPRA_paper_69611.pdf]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_69611.pdf

Download (436kB) | Preview

Abstract

In this paper, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluate the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer, to predict unemployment changes. Since the Ifo Employment Barometer focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the Ifo Employment Barometer outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact us: mpra@ub.uni-muenchen.de

This repository has been built using EPrints software.

MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by Logo of the University Library LMU Munich.