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Forecasting football match results: Are the many smarter than the few?

García, Jaume and Pérez, Levi and Rodríguez, Plácido (2016): Forecasting football match results: Are the many smarter than the few?

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Abstract

An empirical analysis of Spanish football betting odds is carried out here to test whether football matches final result estimates by experts (bookmakers) differ (better/worse) from those by the ‘crowd’ (football pools bettors). Examination of implied probabilities for each of the possible outcomes evidences the existence of favourite long-shot bias in the betting market for Spanish football. A further study of the accuracy of probability forecasts concludes that experts seem to be better in forecasting football results than the ‘crowd’.

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