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中国财政政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型

Guo, Lingyi and Xu, Wenli and Xu, Kun (2016): 中国财政政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型.

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Abstract

This paper construct the NK model with Cosummer’s Heterogeneity included three sectors, in which government is divided into three type of fiscal sector, social security department and central bank. The tax shocks, social security fees rate shock and fiscal expenditure shock are incorporated with the NK model to explord the contribution and the dynamic effect of the fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility. The results show that (1) the shocks of good taxation contribute most in real economy than the shocks of other fiscal policy, and the size of contribution on macroeconomic volatility is 65%; (2) reducing of the tax rates, social security fees rate and fiscal spending stimulate economic growth, and it is more important that cutting the tax rate of labour income and lowering social security fees rate are better measures; (3) cutting tax rates and lowering of social security fees rate improve the fiscal sustainability; (4)the inflation is a joint monetary-fiscal phenomenon. On this basis, this paper propose that government should adopt active tax and fee policies---cutting labour income taxation rate and lower social security fees rate, to spur stable economic growth, simultaneously raise benchmark interest rate to prevent inflation.

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