Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği

Bulut, Mustafa and Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe (2016): Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği.

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Abstract

This study analyzes the transmission of monetary policy decisions to financial markets under varying levels of monetary policy uncertainty. We conducted an event study for the period June 2010-January 2015. The uncertainty regarding to monetary policy is measured by the disagreement of expectations in the CBRT Survey of Expectations. Empirical findings indicate that the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism is highly affected by policy uncertainty. For example, a positive policy surprise leads to an appreciation of Turkish lira against US dollar under low levels of uncertainty, whereas Turkish lira depreciates when uncertainty is high. Furthermore, an increase in the main policy rate flattens the yield curve for all uncertainty levels. On the other hand, this pattern is more pronounced while uncertainty is low and contrary to expectations, long term rates decreases after a positive policy surprise. During the periods when uncertainty regarding monetary policy is low, positive policy surprise decreases long term rates via anchoring inflation expectations.

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