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La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre

Demdoumi, Meriem (2016): La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre.

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Abstract

During these last years, Morocco has almost always known at the same time a budget deficit and a current account deficit. So we can conclude prematurely the existence of a structural problem of twin deficits over a long period. The article introduces in addition to the two balances, the variable transfers of MREs - second source of foreign currency after the tourist returns - as a participatory variable to the equilibrium of the current transactions and verify the hypothesis of the twin deficits using econometric tools, notably the method of Co-integration - to test the long-term relationship - and the method of Granger causality - to know the direction of causality -. The results confirm the twin deficits hypothesis for Morocco for the period from 1980 to 2014 and show bidirectional causality between the variables and the lack of a balanced strategy.

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