The Accuracy of USDA's Export Forecasts

MacDonald, Stephen (1992): The Accuracy of USDA's Export Forecasts. Published in: No. ERS/USDA Staff Report No. AGES 9224

Abstract

USDA's quarterly forecasts of fiscal year agricultural exports by commodity and region were examined for their reliability in predicting annual changes during 1977-89. Most of the forecasts were strongly correlated with actual exports. Most obvious exceptions probably stemmed from rounding errors. Bias was not a problem for the forecasts of total exports in any quarter, nor for most of the commodity forecasts. There was some upward bias in the forecasts for less developed countries, and downward bias for some developed countries. The USDA forecasts were conservative; they were more likely to underestimate the magnitude of change than to overestimate it.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Exports, fore casting, accuracy, export programs, commodities, high-value products
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade

References

1.Dietrich, J. Kimball, and Alfredo D. Gutierrez. "An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Coffee and Cocoa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 32(1) Feb. 1973, pp. 93-9.

2.Gardner, George R., and David W. Skully. The Conduct of Wheat Marketing in North Africa. Staff Report No. AGES860808, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Sept. 1986.

3. Granger, C.W.J., and P. Newbold. "Some Comments on the Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," Applied Economics, 5(1) 1973, pp. 35-47.

4. Harnett, Donald L. Introduction to Statistical Methods. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company Inc., Reading, MA, 1975 (2d ed.).

5.Hiemstra, Stephen W., and Stephen A. MacDonald. "A Trade Estimates System to Assist Forecasting U.S. Agricultural Exports," NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis,Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, St. Louis, MO, Apr. 1988.

6. Kost, William E."Model Validation and the Net Trade Model," Agricultural Economics Research, 32(2) Apr. 1980, pp. 1-16.

7. Lovell, Michael C. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, 76(1) March 1986, pp.110-124.

8. Maddala, G.S., Econometrics. McGraw-Hill Inc., New York, 1977.

9. Thomson, James M."Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Hog Farrowings Statistics,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56(5) Dec. 1974, pp. 1213-17.

10. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports. All issues, 1976-89.

11.U.S. General Accounting Office. Accuracy of USDA's Meat Forecasts and Estimate. GAO/PEMD-91-16, May 1991.