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Simultaneity of Crime Incidence in Mindanao

Madanlo, Lalaine and Murcia, John Vianne and Tamayo, Adrian (2016): Simultaneity of Crime Incidence in Mindanao.

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The study simulated the predictive relationships of regional monthly crime rates for a period covering January 2009 to July 2013. A six-equation model representing the six regions in Mindanao was estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR).

The SUR estimation shows that the increase of incidences of crimes in Southern Mindanao Region and SOCCSKSARGEN tended a 1.73% rise and 0.85% reduction in crime incidences in Zamboanga Peninsula. Monthly crime rates in Northern Mindanao increases crime rates in Southern Mindanao (1.1%), SOCCSKSARGEN (1.29%), CARAGA (0.22%) and ARMM (0.96%). Southern Mindanao yielded simultaneous increase in crimes with Zamboanga Peninsula (0.21%) and Northern Mindanao (0.36%); yet a drop in crimes in CARAGA (0.08%) and ARMM (0.29%).

SOCCSKSARGEN's crime rates rise simultaneously by 0.39% in every percentage increase of crime rates in Northern Mindanao yet plunged by about 0.09% and 0.50% when crimes rise by a notch higher in Zamboanga Peninsula and ARMM. CARAGA posted 0.97% increase and 1.07% decrease of crime rates upon the rise of crime rates Northern Mindanao and Southern Mindanao. Lastly, crime rates in ARMM, on the other hand, tend to increase by 0.63% upon the rise of the same in Northern Mindanao and dipped by 0.58% and 1.09% in simultaneity with Southern Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN.

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