Bekiros, Stelios and Nguyen, Duc Khuong and Sandoval Junior, Leonidas and Salah Uddin, Gazi (2015): Information Diffusion, Cluster formation and Entropy-based Network Dynamics in Equity and Commodity Markets. Forthcoming in: European Journal of Operational Research
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_73397.pdf Download (9MB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper investigates the dynamic causal linkages among U.S. equity and commodity futures markets via the utilization of complex network theory. We make use of rolling estimations of extended matrices and time-varying network topologies to reveal the temporal dimension of correlation and entropy relationships. A simulation analysis using randomized time series is also implemented to assess the impact of de-noising on the data dependence structure. We mainly show evidence of emphasized disparity of correlation and entropy-based centrality measurements for all markets between pre- and post-crisis periods. Our results enable the robust mapping of network influences and contagion effects whilst incorporating agent expectations.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Information Diffusion, Cluster formation and Entropy-based Network Dynamics in Equity and Commodity Markets |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Finance; commodity markets; correlation; transfer entropy; complex network; centrality |
Subjects: | G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets |
Item ID: | 73397 |
Depositing User: | Prof. Duc Khuong Nguyen |
Date Deposited: | 29 Aug 2016 17:19 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 09:45 |
References: | Adams, Z., Glück, T., 2015. Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal? Journal of Banking & Finance 60, 93-111. Allen, F., Babus, A., 2009. Networks in finance. In Kleindorfer, P., Wing, Y.,and Gunther, R. (eds.), The network challenge: strategy, profit, and risk in an interlinked world. Wharton School Publishing. Allen, F., Gale, D., 2000. Financial contagion. Journal of Political Economy 108, 1-33. Aloui, R., Ben Aïssa, M.S., Hammoudeh, S., Nguyen, D.K., 2014. Dependence and extreme dependence of crude oil and natural gas prices with applications to risk management. Energy Economics 42, 332-342. Altiparmak, F., Dengiz, B., 2009. A cross entropy approach to design of reliable networks. European Journal of Operational Research 199 (2), 542-552. Amblard, P.-O., Michel, O.J.J., 2013. The relation between Granger causality and directed information theory: A review. Entropy 15, 113–143. Anton, H., Rorres, C., 2005. Elementary Linear Algebra with Applications, 9th edition. Wiley. Arouri, M., Jouini, J., Nguyen, D.K., 2011. Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector re-turns: implications for portfolio management. Journal of International Money and Finance 30, 1387-1405. Ausloos, M. and Lambiotte, R., 2007. Clusters or networks of economies? A macroeconomy study through gross domestic product. Physica A 382, 16-21. Barnett, L., 2009. Granger causality and transfer entropy are equivalent for Gaussian variables. Physical Review Letters 103, 238701. Barro, D., Basso, A., 2010. Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction. European Journal of Operational Research 205 (2), 459-468. Baur, D.G., McDermott, T. K. 2010. Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance 34, 1886-1898. Borg, I., and Groenen, P. 2005. Modern Multidimensional Scaling: theory and applications, 2nd edition, Springer-Verlag. Büyükahin, B., Haigh, M.S., Robe, M.A., 2010. Commodities and equities: Ever a market of one? Journal of Alternative Investments, 12(3), 76-95. Büyükşahin, B., Robe, M., 2011. Does paper oil matter? Energy markets’ financialization and equity-commodity co-movements.Working paper, CFTC. Büyükşahin, B., Robe, M.A, 2014. Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages. Journal of International Money and Finance 42, 38-70. CFTC, 2008. Staff report on commodity swap dealers & index traders with commission recommendations. September 2008. http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr5542-08 Chan-Lau, J. A., Mathieson, D. J., Yao, J.Y., 2004. Extreme contagion in equity markets. IMF Staff Papers 51, 386-408. Cheng, I. H., Xiong, W. 2014. Financialization of commodity markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics 6, 419-441. Daskalaki, C., Skiadopoulos, G., 2011. Should investors include commodities in their portfolio after all? New evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance 35, 2606-2626. Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49, 1057-1072. Dimpfl, T., Peter, F.J., 2012. Using transfer entropy to measure information flows between financial markets. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 17, 85–102. Domanski, D., Heath, A., 2007. Financial investors and commodity markets. BIS Quarterly Review, 53-67. Draper, P., Faff, R.W., and Hillier, D., 2006. Do precious metals shine? An investment perspective. Financial Analysts Journal 62, 98-106. Dwyer, A., Gardner, G., Williams, T., 2011. Global commodity markets–price volatility and financialisation. Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, June, 49–57. Engle, R.F., 1982. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of UK inflation. Econometrica 50, 987–1008. Faes, L., Nollo, G., Porta, A., 2013. Compensated transfer entropy as a tool for reliably estimating information transfer in physiological time series. Entropy 15, 198–219. Filis, G., Degiannakis, S., Floros, C., 2011. Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. International Review of Financial Analysis 20(3), 152-164. Forbes, K., Rigobon, R., 2002. No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring stock market comovements. Journal of Finance 57, 2223-2261. Gómez, D., Figueira, J.-R., Eusébio, A., 2013. Modeling centrality measures in social network analysis using bi-criteria network flow optimization problems. European Journal of Operational Research 226 (2), 354-365/ Gorton, G., Rouwenhorst, K.G., 2006. Facts and fantasies about commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal 62, 47- 68. Gromb, D., Vayanos, D., 2010. Limits of arbitrage: The state of the theory. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper series no.15821. Haldane, A., 2009. Rethinking the financial network. Speech delivered at the Financial Student Association, Amsterdam. Irwin, S.H., Sanders, D.R., 2011. Index funds, financialization, and commodity futures markets. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 33(1), 1–31. Johnson, L. L., 1960. The theory of hedging and speculation in commodity futures. Review of Economics Studies, 27, 139–151. Kwon, O., Yang, J-S., 2008. Information flow between composite stock index and individual stocks. Physica A 387, 2851-2856. Liu, L.F., Hu, H.P., Deng, Y.S., Ding, N.D., 2014. An entropy measure of non-stationary processes. Entropy 16, 1493–1500. Lizier, J.T., Mahoney, J.R., 2013. Moving frames of reference, relativity and invariance in transfer entropy and information dynamics. Entropy 15, 177–197. Marschinski, R., Kantz, H., 2002. Analysing the information flow between financial time series – an improved estimator for transfer entropy. European Physics Journal B 2002, 30, 275–281. Nagurney, A., Ke, K., 2006. Financial networks with intermediation: Risk management with variable weights. European Journal of Operational Research 172 (1), 40-63. Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., Sharma, S. S., 2013. An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors? Journal of Banking and Finance 37(10), 3878-3889. Narayan, P.K., Sharma, S., 2011. New evidence on oil price and firm returns. Journal of Banking and Finance 35, 3253–3262. Newman, M.E.J. Networks: an introduction, 2010. Oxford University Press. Nichols, J.M., Bucholtz, F., Michalowicz, J.V., 2013. Linearized transfer entropy for continuous second order systems. Entropy 15, 3186–3204. Onnela, J.-P., Chakraborti, A., Kaski, K., 2003. Dynamics of market correlations: taxonomy and portfolio analysis. Physical Review E 68, 1-12. Onnela, J.-P., Chakraborti, A., Kaski, K., Kertész, J., 2002. Dynamic asset trees and portfolio analysis. European Physics Journal B 30, 285-288. Phillips, P. C., Perron, P., 1988. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75, 335-346. Prokopenko, M., Lizier, J.T., Price, D.C., 2013. On thermodynamic interpretation of transfer entropy. Entropy 15, 524–543. Sandoval Jr., L., 2013. Cluster formation and evolution in networks of financial market indices. Algorithmic Finance 2, 3-43. Sandoval Jr., L., 2014. Structure of a global network of financial companies based on transfer entropy. Entropy 16 (8), 4443-4482. Sandoval Jr., L., Mullokandov, A., Kenett, D.Y., 2015. Dependency relation among international stock market indices. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 8 (2), 227-265. Schreiber, T., 2000. Measuring information transfer. Physical Review Letters 85, 461-464. Sensoy, A., Hacihasanoglu, E., Nguyen, D.K., 2015. Dynamic convergence of commodity futures: Not all types of commodities are alike. Resources Policy 44, 150-160. Shannon, C.E., 1948. A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal 27, 379–423, 623-656. Silvennoinen, A., Thorp, S., 2013. Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 24, 42-65. Tang, K., Xiong, W., 2012. Index investment and the financialization of commodities. Financial Analysts Journal 68(6), 54-74. Upper, C., 2011. Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets. Journal of Financial Stability 7(3), 111–125. Ver Steeg, G., Galstyan, A., 2012. Information transfer in social media. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on World Wide Web, Lyon, France, 16–20 April 2012; ACM: New York, NY, USA, 2012; pp. 509–518. Veremyev, A., Boginski, V., 2012. Identifying large robust network clusters via new compact formulations of maximum k-club problems. European Journal of Operational Research 218 (2), 316-326. Vicente, R., Wibral, M., Lindner, M., Pipa, G., 2011. Transfer entropy—a model-free measure of effective connectivity for the neurosciences. Journal of Computational Neuroscience 30, 45–67. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/73397 |