Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc.

Loumrhari, Ghizlan (2016): Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc.

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Abstract

The objective of this article is to estimate the effects of the population aging on the financial viability of the pension system and the macroeconomic evolution in a general way. To do it, we built a computational OLG model. The results show that the current ageing and which will accelerate in the 2030s will have dramatic consequences both on the financial and economic plans. The increase of the rate of contribution and the reduction in retirement pensions if they can assure the financial balance of pension funds seem impossible to be implemented economically and socially. Indeed, to maintain the balance of pension funds, the government should increase the rate of contributions of 20 points or to lower the benefits of practically 30 %. Certainly, it is always possible to combine these two reforms with an increase of two years the retirement age and the introduction of a dose of capitalization but it seems insufficient.

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