Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc.

Loumrhari, Ghizlan (2016): Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc.

Abstract

The objective of this article is to estimate the effects of the population aging on the financial viability of the pension system and the macroeconomic evolution in a general way. To do it, we built a computational OLG model. The results show that the current ageing and which will accelerate in the 2030s will have dramatic consequences both on the financial and economic plans. The increase of the rate of contribution and the reduction in retirement pensions if they can assure the financial balance of pension funds seem impossible to be implemented economically and socially. Indeed, to maintain the balance of pension funds, the government should increase the rate of contributions of 20 points or to lower the benefits of practically 30 %. Certainly, it is always possible to combine these two reforms with an increase of two years the retirement age and the introduction of a dose of capitalization but it seems insufficient.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Ageing and pension reform. A computational olg model for Morocco
• Language: French
• Keywords: Vieillissement démographiques, systèmes de retraite, modèles à générations imbriquées, Maroc
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J26 - Retirement ; Retirement Policies

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