“On the Campaign Trail: The Electoral Effects of Leader Visits”

Davis, Brent (2016): “On the Campaign Trail: The Electoral Effects of Leader Visits”.

Abstract

The campaign trail is an integral part of most elections. In an Australian federal election, it means the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader engage in a strategic program of visits, both to ‘our seats’ (the one’s we want to hold on to) and ‘their seats’ (the one’s we want to take from the other party).

This article is the first to examine visits by multiple, competing political leaders in an election, in a Westminster system. Using a unique data set from the 2013 Australian federal election, there appears to be a non-random, strategic approach to the selection of seats visited by political leaders.

However, using a counterfactual analysis, leader visits do not appear to have a major impact in determining the broader outcome of the election, although the absence of leader visits could have changed the outcome in a number of ALP Government-held seats.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: election campaigns; permanent campaign; vote behaviour; Australian elections
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

References

Althaus, S. L., Nardulli, P. F. and Shaw, D. R. 2002. “Candidate Appearances in Presidential Elections, 1972 – 2000” Political Communications 19: 49 – 72.

Australian Bureau of Statistics. 2013. “Census 2011: Data and Analysis”. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Australian Electoral Commission. 2011. “The 2010 Federal Election”. Canberra: Australian Electoral Commission.

Charnock, E. J., McCann, J. A. and Dunn Tenpas, K. 2009. “Presidential Travel from Eisenhower to George W Bush: An “Electoral College” Strategy” Political Science Quarterly 124: 323 – 339.

Cohen, J. E., Krassa, M. A. and Hamman, J. A. 1991. “The Impact of Presidential Campaigning on Mid-Term US Senate Elections” American Political Science Review 85: 165 – 178.

Cohen, J. E. and Powell, R. J. 2005. “Building Public Support from the Grassroots Up: The Impact of Presidential Travel on State-Level Approval” Presidential Studies Quarterly 35: 11 – 27.

Doherty, B. J. 2007. “The Politics of the Permanent Campaign: Presidential Travel and the Electoral College, 1977 – 2004” Presidential Studies Quarterly 37: 749 – 773.

Eshbaugh-Soha, M. and Nicholson-Crotty, S. 2009. “Presidential Campaigning During Midterm Elections” American Review of Politics 30: 35 -50.

Herr, J. P. 2002. “The Impact of Campaign Appearances in the 1996 Election” Journal of Politics 64: 904 – 913.

Herrnson, P. S. and Morris, I. L. 2007. “Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections” Legislative Studies Quarterly 32: 629 – 648.

Hill, J. S., Rodriquez, E. and Wooden, A. E. 2010. “Stump Speeches and Road Trips: The Impact of State Campaign Appearances in Presidential Elections” PS: Political Science and Politics 43: 243 – 354.

Hoddie, M. and Routh, S. R. 2004. “Predicting the Presidential Presence: Explaining Presidential Midterm Elections Campaign Behaviour” Political Research Quarterly 57: 257 – 265.

Holbrook, T. M. 2002. “Did the Whistle-Stop Campaign Matter?” PS: Political Science and Politics 35: 59 – 66.

Keele, L. J., Fogarty, B. J. and Stimson, J. A. 2004. “Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections” PS: Political Science and Politics 37: 827 – 832.

King, D. and Morehouse, D. 2004. “Moving Voters in the 2000 Presidential Campaign: Local Visits, Local Media”, Faculty Research Working Paper 04-003, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

Lang, M., Rottinghaus, B. and Peters, G. 2011. “Revisiting Midterm Visits: Why the Type of Visit Matters” Presidential Studies Quarterly 41: 809 – 818.

McClurg, S. D. and Bryan, J. 2009. “The Effect of Presidential Campaigning: The 2002 and 2004 Midterm Senate Elections”, Working Paper 1/2009, Department of Political Science, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale.

Mellen, R. and Searles, K. 2013. “Predicting Presidential Appearances During Mid-Term Elections: The President and House Candidates 1982 – 2010” American Politics Research 41: 328 – 347.

Sellers, P. J. and Denton, L. M. 2006. “Presidential Visits and Midterm Senate Elections” Presidential Studies Quarterly 36: 410 – 432.

Shaw, D. R. 1999. “The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988-96” American Political Science Review 93: 345 – 361.