Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

Colasante, Annarita and Alfarano, Simone and Camacho-Cuena, Eva and Gallegati, Mauro (2016): Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment.

Abstract

We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment (LtFE) using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium (REE) is not a meaningful description for subjects' expectations, (ii) which are, instead, better described by an adaptive learning scheme. (iii) Subjects exhibit a higher degree of inertia when revising long-run expectations vis-a-vis short-run expectations.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Experiment, Expectations, Coordination
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations ; Speculations; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates

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