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Heterogeneidad y Racionalidad en las Expectativas de Inflación: Evidencia desagregada para República Dominicana

Jiménez Polanco, Miguel Alejandro and Lopez Hawa, Nabil (2014): Heterogeneidad y Racionalidad en las Expectativas de Inflación: Evidencia desagregada para República Dominicana. Published in: Documento de Trabajo Banco Central de la República Dominicana No. 2014-01 (10 January 2014)

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Abstract

Inflation expectations play a key role for a central bank under an inflation targeting regime. This paper analyses the inflation expectations of economic agents answering the Survey of Macroeconomic Expectations run by the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD). Data is dis-aggregated by groups: academics, bankers, consultants, international organizations and firms. The main findings show: a) a learning process seen by a reduction of forecasting errors when predicting future inflation; b) heterogeneity of inflation expectations among different groups; and by last, c) data fails rationality tests related to rational and adaptive expectations; results suggest partial use of public information and a significant bias by agents.

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