Bennett, Max and Yuan, Yue (2016): On the Price Spread of Benchmark Crude Oils: A Spatial Price Equilibrium Model.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_76024.pdf Download (733kB) | Preview |
Abstract
Benchmark crude oils exhibited dramatic fluctuations in price spreads in the recent decade, a phenomenon that rarely occurred in earlier decades. This paper develops a rational expectations two-period model of spatial price equilibrium, and departs from standard models by assuming increasing marginal costs of transportation and storage. We econometrically validate our model using a dataset that covers an extended time period. The model allows us to determine the underlying causes of the unique phenomenon of drastically changing crude oil price spreads over the past decade.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | On the Price Spread of Benchmark Crude Oils: A Spatial Price Equilibrium Model |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Crude oil; price spread; spatial price equilibrium |
Subjects: | G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q41 - Demand and Supply ; Prices |
Item ID: | 76024 |
Depositing User: | Yue Yuan |
Date Deposited: | 07 Jan 2017 08:16 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 12:27 |
References: | Anderson, T. W., and Herman Rubin. 1949. “Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic Equations.” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 20(1): 46–63. Andrews, Donald W. K. 1991. “Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation.” Econometrica, 59(3): 817–858. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio. 1989. “Does the Law of One Price Really Hold for Commodity Prices?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 71(3): 661–669. Baum, Christopher F., Mark E. Schaffer, and Steven Stillman. 2003. “Instrumental Variables and GMM: Estimation and Testing.” Stata Journal, 3(1): 1–31. Baum, Christopher F., Mark E. Schaffer, and Steven Stillman. 2007. “Enhanced Routines for Instrumental Variables/Generalized Method of Moments Estimation and Testing.” Stata Journal, 7(4): 465–506. Buyuksahin, Bahattin, Thomas K. Lee, James T. Moser, and Michel A. Robe. 2013. “Physical Markets, Paper Markets and the WTI-Brent Spread.” Energy Journal, 34(3): 129– 151. Coleman, Andrew. 2009. “Storage, Slow Transport, and the Law of One Price: Theory with Evidence from Nineteenth-Century U.S. Corn Markets.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2): 332–350. Deaton, Angus, and Guy Laroque. 1992. “On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices.” Review of Economic Studies, 59(1): 1–23. Deaton, Angus, and Guy Laroque. 1996. “Competitve Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics.” Journal of Political Economy, 104(5): 896–923. Fattouh, Bassam. 2010. “The Dynamics of Crude Oil Price Differentials.” Energy Economics, 32(2): 334–342. Goldberg, Pinelopi K., and Frank Verboven. 2005. “Market Integration and Convergence to the Law of One Price: Evidence from the European Car Market.” Journal of International Economics, 65(1): 283–303. Hahn, Jinyong, Jerry Hausman, and Guido Kuersteiner. 2004. “Estimation with Weak Instruments: Accuracy of Higher-Order Bias and MSE Approximations.” Econometrics Journal, 7(1): 46–63. Knittel, Christopher R., and Robert S. Pindyck. 2016. “The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(2): 85–110. Lutkepohl, Helmut. 2005. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. Newey, Whitney K., and Kenneth D. West. 1987. “A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica, 55(3): 703–708. Olsen, Kyle K., James W. Mjelde, and David A. Bessler. 2015. “Price Formulation and the Law of One Price in Internationally Linked Markets: An Examination of the Natural Gas Markets in the USA and Canada.” Annals of Regional Science, 54(1): 117–142. Richardson, J. David. 1978. “Some Empirical Evidence on Commodity Arbitrage and the Law of One Price.” Journal of International Economics, 8(2): 341–351. Roodman, David. 2009. “A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1): 135–158. Samuelson, Paul A. 1952. “Spatial Price Equilibrium and Linear Programming.” American Economic Review, 42(3): 283–303. Smith, Richard J. 2005. “Automatic Positive Semidefinite HAC Covariance Matrix and GMM Estimation.” Econometric Theory, 21(1): 158–170. Stock, James H., and Motohiro Yogo. 2005. “Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression.” In Identification and Inference for Econometric Models: Essays in Honor of Thomas J. Rothenberg. , ed. Donald W. K. Andrews and James H. Stock, Chapter 5. Cambridge University Press. Takayama, Takashi, and George G. Judge. 1964. “Equilibrium among Spatially Separated Markets: A Reformulation.” Econometrica, 32(4): 283–303. Werner, Jan. 1987. “Arbitrage and the Existence of Competitive Equilibrium.” Econometrica, 55(6): 1403–1418. Williams, Jeffrey C., and Brian Wright. 1991. Storage and Commodity Markets. Cambridge University Press. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/76024 |