Khan, Haider (2008): China’s New Development Strategy: Environment and Energy Security.
Download (326kB) | Preview
This paper analyzes China's development strategy by focusing on both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China’s energy security. PRC’s growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies(NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future . Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. Fortunately, such a model of POLIS which is distributionally and ecologically sensitive can be built for China and applied strategically to lead towards a sustainable development trajectory.
However, time is of the essence. Given the path dependence of development unless strategic disengagement from the existing path followed by a strategic engagement with the alternative strategy is begun within the next five years, it may well be too late. The stakes are indeed very high. A more detailed strategy paper based on the key ideas from the alternative strategy outlined here with concrete quantitative scenarios and feasibility studies along the lines of models sketched in the appendix ( and other, more detailed models) will go some distance towards giving the appropriate analytical foundations for the policy makers. The preliminary results confirm the predictions regarding fossil fuel-based energy shortage and lead towards a serious consideration of alternative energy sources. Achieving the twin goals of energy security and ecological balance are challenging but not impossible for China. Serious policy research can be used effectively if there is the political will to do so. The goal of regional cooperation is also achievable if patient negotiations in good faith can start in earnest. In particular, cooperation with other Asian economies, particularly Japan, Indonesia, Viet Nam and India will be crucial.This paper has sketched out the complexities of cooperation and conflict between China and Japan. Future work will address the problems of Regional cooperation for China in the East, South and South Asian context as well as in the context of Africa and Latin America.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||China’s New Development Strategy: Environment and Energy Security|
|Keywords:||China, Development Strategy, Energy, Environment, POLIS, Innovation System, Regional Cooperation|
|Subjects:||Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics > D62 - Externalities
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O53 - Asia including Middle East
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products
|Depositing User:||Haider Khan|
|Date Deposited:||12. Mar 2008 00:20|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 01:23|
Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, various years, Oxford University Press. “China Passes Renewable Energy Law.” Renewable Energy Access, March 9, 2005.
Christoffersen, Gaye. 1998. “China’s intentions for Russian and Central Asian oil and gas”, NBR Analysis, vol.9, no.2. March Cole, Bernard. (2003). Oil for the Lamps of China. Washington D.C.: INSS Publications. Dadi, Zhou. (2003). “China’s Sustainable Energy Future.” Energy Research Institute.
Deolalikar, Anil, Rana Hasan, Haider Khan and M.G. Quibria.1997. “Competitiveness and Human Resource Development in Asia”, Asian Development Review, vol.15, no.2: 131-163. Energy Information Administration.2002. International Energy Database, Washington DC. Foster, J.E., J. Greer and E. Thorbecke, 1984, “A class of decomposable poverty measures,” Econometrica 52, 761-766.
Kakwani, N., 1993, Poverty and economic growth with application to Cote d’Ivoire, Review of Income and Wealth 39 (2) 121-139. Khan, H. A.(2004a), Innovation and Growth in East Asia:The Future of Miracles, Macmillan. --------2004b, Global Markets and Financial Crisis in Asia: Towards a Theory for the 21st Century, Macmillan. --------.1999 “Sectoral Growth and Poverty: a multiplier decomposition analysis for South Africa, World Development, March. ------.(1998)Technology, Development and Democracy: The Limits of National Innovation Systems in the Age of Postmodernism Cheltenham, UK:Edward Elgar. -----1997. Technology, Energy and Development: The South Korean Transition, Cheltenham, UK:Edward Elgar ----(2002a) Managing Global Risks and Creating Prosperity: the role of the IMF and regional financial architectures, Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo (can be downloaded from http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cirje/index.htm） -----2002b"China's Entry into the WTO: ICT Sectors, Innovation, Growth and Distribution", July 2002 - (Website address: http://www.e.utokyo.ac.jp/cirje/index.htm)
------(2003) “Creating Social Capabilities in POLIS”, in Tom Misa, Philip Brey and Andrew Feenberg eds. Technology and Modernity, The MIT Press. ------1996"Structural Adjustment and Human Development: Lessons for Asian Transitional Economies," Transitional Economies and Regional Development, A. Kumssa and H. A. Khan eds. Nagoya: UNCRD -----1983. “Choice of Technology, Energy and Income Distribution: A Macroeconomic Framework”, unpublished dissertation, Cornell University -----1982a. "Energy, Technology and Income Distribution: A Social Accounting Matrix for Energy Modelling," Applied Simulation and Modelling, Calgary, Canada, ACTA, 1982. ----1982b “Choice of Technology in the Energy and Textiles Sectors in Korea”, World Employment Programme Working Paper, Geneva: ILO __________ and Erik Thorbecke. 1988. Technology Choice and Diffusion in a Macroeconomic Framework. Aldeshot,UK: Gower ----- and John Weiss, eds. Poverty Strategies in Asia:Growth Plus, Edward Elgar. Khan, H. and K. Sonko,1994. "A Further Extension of Adjustment Models: The Environment and Equity," George Shepherd and Karamo Sonko (eds.), Economic Justice in Africa: Adjustment and Sustainable Development, Westport: Greenwood Press, pp.189-201
Lieberthal, Kenneth and Michel Oksenberg . 1998. Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes , Princeton: , Princeton University Press LaCroix, Sumner J. and Denise Eby-Konan.1998. Intellectual Property Rights in China: American Pressure and Chinese Resistance. University of Hawaii, Processed. Lai, Edwin L. C. 1998. “International Intellectual Property Rights Protection and the Rate of Product Innovation”, Journal of Development Economics 55:115-30. Lin, Jiang. (2005). “Trends in Energy Efficiency Investments in China and the U.S.” Berkeley, CA: Berkeley National Laboratory. Li, Zijun. “China’s Renewable Energy Law Takes Effect.” Renewable Energy Access, Jan. 19, 2006.
Lin, Xiannuan. (1996). China’s Energy Strategy: Economic Structures, Technological Choices and Energy Consumption. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.
Lu, Qiwen. 2000. China’s Leap into the Information Age, Oxford: Oxford University Press Maskus, Keith E. 2000. Intellectual Property Rights in the Global Economy, Washington DC: Institute for International Economics. The People’s Republic of China. “Authorized Release: The Renewable Energy Law.” OECD. 2000. OECD Information Technology Outlook: ICTs, E-Commerce and the Information Economy, Paris: OECD Ping, Zhou Jia. “China’s New and Renewable Energy Situation.” Energie Verwertungsagentur.
Pyatt, G. and J.I. Round . 1979. “Accounting and Fixed Price Multipliers in Social Acounting Matrix Framework,” Economic Journal Vol. 89, Dec.
PRC Govt., Input-Output Tables, various years. --------------- Industrial Statistics, various years. Simon, D. F. 1996. “From Cold to Hot---China’s Struggle to Protect and Develop a World Class Electronics Industry”, China Business Review, Nov.—Dec.:8-16. ------- and M. Goldman. 1989. Science and Technology in Post-Mao China, Cambridge,Ma.: Harvard University Press. Sinton, Jonathon. (2000). “What goes Up: Recent Trends in China’s Energy Consumption.” Berkeley, CA: Lawrence National Laboratory.
Soete, L. 1985. “ International Diffusion of Technology, Industrial Development and Technological Leapfrogging”, World Development, 13:409-22. Smil, Vaclav. (1976). China’s Energy: Achievements, Problems, Prospects. New York, NY: Praeger Publishers. Smil, Vaclav. (1998). Energy in China’s Modernization: Advances and Limitations. Armonk NY: East Gate Books. Stiglitz, Joseph. 1994. Whither Socialism?Cambridge, Ma.: The MIT Press. Thorbecke, Erik and H.-S. Jung. 1996. ‘Multiplier Decomposition Method to Analyze Poverty Alleviation’, Journal of Development Economics, 48(2):279-301. World Bank. (1985). China: The Energy Sector. Washington D.C.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The World Watch Institute. (2006). State of the World 2006. New York, NY: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc. Zhang, ZhongXiang. (1998). The Economics of Energy Policy in China. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
Zhang, Zhengming. “Renewable Energy Development in China: The Potential and the Challenges.” China’s Sustainable Energy Program.