A Quantitative Assessment of the Proposed China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement

Fuenfzig, Michael (2016): A Quantitative Assessment of the Proposed China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement.

Abstract

This paper discusses the proposed China-Georgia free trade agreement and provides quantitative estimates of its economic effects. The proposed free trade agreement would more than double trade flows between China and Georgia over a time horizon of ten to fifteen years, and would increase Georgian GDP per capita by about 1.5 percent. Chinese exports to Georgia would increase by about 20 to 30 percent, and Chinese GDP per capita would remain virtually unchanged. While these estimates have to be treated with extreme caution, they should serve as a motivation to continue negotiations on the free trade agreement.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Free trade agreement; impact assessment; gravity equation
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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