Attila Havas, Attila (2000): Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme. Published in: Haeder, M. and Haeder, S. (eds): Die Delphi-Technik in den Sozialwissenschaften: methodische Forschungen und innovative Anwendungen (2000): pp. 95-107.
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Abstract
Hungary launched her first foresight programme in 1997. As the country is undergoing fundamental economic and social changes, major institutions are being currently shaped. Therefore is high time to think about medium and long-term issues. In other words, now it is possible to devise strategies aimed at improving the quality of life and the long-term international competitiveness. Foresight has seemed an adequate tool to bring together business, the science base and government in order to identify and respond to emerging opportunities in markets and technologies. TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on both panel activities (scenarios, SWOT analysis, recommendations, policy proposals, etc.) and a large scale Delphi survey. The two-year Programme will conclude in 1999. The paper is aimed at analysing the reasons to launch TEP, its results achieved so far and some methodological issues, namely • a strong emphasis on scenarios (‘macro’ and panel level), • the structure and composition of panels (education and learning as input of competitiveness, employment as a unique issue, broad issues as panel topics), • the importance of cross-cutting issues, • the organisation and management of the programme, • the socio-psychological legacy of planning in the foresight process.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Foresight; National innovation system; Transition to market economy; Delphi survey; Scenario analyses; Multi-level analyses; Hungary |
Subjects: | B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B52 - Institutional ; Evolutionary O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O30 - General O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O38 - Government Policy P - Economic Systems > P2 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies > P20 - General P - Economic Systems > P3 - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions |
Item ID: | 79512 |
Depositing User: | Attila Havas |
Date Deposited: | 04 Jun 2017 11:19 |
Last Modified: | 19 Oct 2019 04:36 |
References: | Cuhls, K. and T. Kuwahara [1994]: Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technologies, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer Publishers. Fleissner, P. et al [1998]: Recent national foresight studies, Sevilla: IPTS. Gavigan, J.P. and E. Cahill [1997]: Overview of recent European and non-European national technology foresight studies, Sevilla: IPTS. Georghiou [1996]: “The UK Technology Foresight Programme”, Futures, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 359-377. Grupp [1994]: “Technology at the Beginning of the 21st Century”, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Vol. 6, No. 4. pp. 379-409. Grupp [1996]: “Foresight in Science and Technology: Selected methodologies and recent activities in Germany”, OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, No. 17, pp. 71-100. Irvine, J. and B. Martin [1984]: Foresight in Science: Picking the winners, London: Frances Pinter. Irvine, J. and B. Martin [1989]: Research Foresight: Creating the future, Zoetermeer: Netherlands Ministry of Education sand Science. Kuwahara, T. [1996]: “Technology Foresight in Japan: A new approach in methodology and analysis”, OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, No. 17, pp. 52-70. Martin, B. [1996]: “Technology Foresight: A review of recent government exercises”, OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, No. 17, pp. 15-50. OST [1998]: The Future in Focus: A summary of national foresight programmes, London: HMSO. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/79512 |
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