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Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme

Attila Havas, Attila (2000): Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme. Published in: Haeder, M. and Haeder, S. (eds): Die Delphi-Technik in den Sozialwissenschaften: methodische Forschungen und innovative Anwendungen (2000): pp. 95-107.

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Abstract

Hungary launched her first foresight programme in 1997. As the country is undergoing fundamental economic and social changes, major institutions are being currently shaped. Therefore is high time to think about medium and long-term issues. In other words, now it is possible to devise strategies aimed at improving the quality of life and the long-term international competitiveness. Foresight has seemed an adequate tool to bring together business, the science base and government in order to identify and respond to emerging opportunities in markets and technologies. TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on both panel activities (scenarios, SWOT analysis, recommendations, policy proposals, etc.) and a large scale Delphi survey. The two-year Programme will conclude in 1999. The paper is aimed at analysing the reasons to launch TEP, its results achieved so far and some methodological issues, namely • a strong emphasis on scenarios (‘macro’ and panel level), • the structure and composition of panels (education and learning as input of competitiveness, employment as a unique issue, broad issues as panel topics), • the importance of cross-cutting issues, • the organisation and management of the programme, • the socio-psychological legacy of planning in the foresight process.

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