Оценивание гравитационных моделей международной торговли: обзор основных подходов

Shumilov, Andrei (2017): Оценивание гравитационных моделей международной торговли: обзор основных подходов. Published in: HSE Economic Journal , Vol. 21, No. 2 (2017): pp. 244-250.

Abstract

Gravity models, which relate volume of exports from one country to another to the economic size of those countries and various trade costs, have long been successfully used in empirical analysis of international trade flows and their determinants. Recent decades saw a substantial increase in a number of methods to estimate such models due to the emergence of theoretically founded modifications of the gravity equation. This paper surveys these advances in the estimation methodology. First, alternative techniques to account for structural multilateral resistance terms (introducing remoteness measures, using price indices, non-linear estimation and its linear approximation, importer and exporter fixed effects) are examined. Variants of gravity specifications on panel data (country-pair fixed and random effects, Hausman-Taylor model) are then reviewed. Next, common errors in gravity modeling associated with atheoretical calculations of bilateral trade and economic size variables are analyzed. Finally, ways to consistently estimate gravity models in the presence of zero trade flows using Poisson regression, Tobit and Heckman models are discussed.

All the methods considered have their own advantages and drawbacks. The choice of estimator in an application is not obvious, and depends on properties of available data and goals of research. A good practice in the modern empirical literature is to utilize simultaneously several techniques, at least for robustness checks.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Estimating gravity models of international trade: a survey of methods
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: gravity models of trade; trade costs; multilateral resistance; econometric estimators
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade

References

Могилат А.Н., Сальников В.А. Оценка потенциала взаимной торговли стран Единого экономического пространства при помощи гравитационной модели торговли между регионами России // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2015. 3(27), 80-108.

Таганов Б.В., Идрисов Г.И. Инвестиционные эффекты ПТС: качество соглашений имеет значение // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2016. 3(31), 40-65.

Anderson J.E. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation // American Economic Review. 1979. 69(1), 106-116.

Anderson J.E., Larch M., Yotov Y.V. Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework. NBER Working Paper № 21377. 2015.

Anderson J.E., van Wincoop E. Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle // American Economic Review. 2003. 63, 881-892.

Anderson J.E., van Wincoop E. Trade Costs // Journal of Economic Literature. 2004. 42, 691-751.

Andrienko Y., Guriev S. Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia // Economics of Transition. 2004. 12(1), 1-27.

Baier S.L., Bergstrand J.H. Bonus Vetus OLS: A Simple Method for Approximating International Trade-Cost Effects using the Gravity Equation // Journal of International Economics. 2009. 77, 77-85.

Baltagi B. H., Egger P., Pfaffermayr M. A Generalized Design for Bilateral Trade Flow Models // Economics Letters. 2003. 80, 391-397.

Baldwin R., Taglioni D. Trade Effects of the Euro: A Comparison of Estimators // Journal of Economic Integration. 2007. 22(4), 780-818.

Baxter M., Kouparitsas M. What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows? NBER Working Paper № 12188. 2006.

Bergstrand J.H. The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence // Review of Economics and Statistics. 1985. 67(3), 474-481.

Bergstrand J.H. The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade // Review of Economics and Statistics. 1989. 71(1), 143-153.

Chaney T. Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade // American Economic Review. 2008. 98(4), 1707-1721.

Chaney T. The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation. NBER Working Paper № 19285. 2013.

Cipollina M., Salvatici L. Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis // Review of International Economics. 2010. 18(1), 63-80.

Deardorff A.V. Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? // The Regionalization of the World Economy. University of Chicago Press. 1998. 7-32.

Eaton J., Tamura A. Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns // Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. 1994. 8(4), 478-510.

Eaton J., Kortum S. Trade in Capital Goods // European Economic Review. 2001. 45(7), 1195-1235.

Eaton J., Kortum S. Technology, Geography, and Trade // Econometrica. 2002. 70(5), 1741-1779.

Eaton J., Kortum S., Kramarz F. An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence from French Firms // Econometrica. 2011. 79(5), 1453-1498.

Egger P., Pfaffermayr M. The Proper Panel Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation: A Three-Way Model with Bilateral Interaction Effects // Empirical Economics. 2003. 28, 571-580.

Fratianni M., Oh C.H. Expanding RTAs, Trade Flows, and the Multinational Enterprise // Journal of International Business Studies. 2009. 40(7), 1206-1227.

Harrigan J. Openness to Trade in Manufactures in the OECD // Journal of International Economics. 1996. 40(1-2), 23-39.

Hausman J.A., Taylor W.E. Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effect // Econometrica. 1981. 49, 1377-1398.

Head K., Mayer T. Non-Europe: the Magnitude and Causes of Market Fragmentation in the EU // Review of World Economics. 2000. 136(2), 284-314.

Head K., Mayer T. Gravity Equations: Toolkit, Cookbook, Workhorse. // Handbook of International Economics. 2014. 4, 131-195.

Helliwell J. National Borders, Trade, and Migration // Pacific Economic Review. 1997. 3(3), 165-185.

Helpman E., Krugman P. Market Structure and Foreign Trade. Cambridge: MIT Press. 1985.

Helpman E., Melitz M., Rubinstein Y. Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes // Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2008. 123, 441-487.

Krugman P. Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade // American Economic Review. 1980. 70, 950-959.

Lucas R.E., Prescott E.C. Investment Under Uncertainty // Econometrica. 1971. 39(5), 659-681.

McCallum J. National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns // American Economic Review. 1995. 85(3), 615-623.

Martin W., Pham S. Estimating the Gravity Equation when Zero Trade Flows Are Frequent. World Bank. 2008.

Mátyás L. Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model // The World Economy. 1997. 20(3), 363-368.

Rose A.K. One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade // Economic Policy. 2000. 30, 9-45.

Rose A.K., Stanley T.D. A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade // Journal of Economic Surveys. 2005. 19(3), 347-365.

Santos Silva J.M.C., Tenreyro S. The Log of Gravity // Review of Economics and Statistics. 2006. 88, 641-658.

Serlenga L., Shin Y. Gravity Models of Intra-EU Trade: Application of the CCEP-HT Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Unobserved Common Time-Specific Factors // Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2007. 22, 361-381.

Tinbergen J. Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. Twentieth Century Fund, New York, 1962.

Wei, S.-J. Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration? NBER Working Papers № 5531. 2006.

Westerlund J., Wilhelmsson F. Estimating the Gravity Model without Gravity using Panel Data // Applied Economics. 2009. 41, 1-9.

Wooldridge J.M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. MIT Press, 2002.