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آثار عجز الميزانية على الإدخار الخاص في الإقتصاد المغربي عبر نمذجة التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي

Ghassan, Hassan B. (2003): آثار عجز الميزانية على الإدخار الخاص في الإقتصاد المغربي عبر نمذجة التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي. Published in: Public Administration Journal , Vol. 44, No. 4 (16 September 2004): pp. 883-907.

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate a structural VAR model using macroeconomic data of Moroccan Economy, which includes national saving rate and budget deficit rate, to test the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis. In this framework, we separate saving and deficit movements into two types of shocks, associated with structural parameters, as we look for two needles in haystack. We avoid imposing short run or long run constraints, which represents a methodological contribution and permits to obtain a best estimation of structural multipliers. The empirical results show that the mechanism of automatic stabilizing is indirectly checked in our sample. Our results suggest that Ricardian Equivalence did work in our sample, since private saving compensated a big fraction 90 per cent of the shock in budget deficit. This supports the interpretation that the large budget deficit, financed especially by debt, have been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates particularly in the eighties and early nineties.

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