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الإنفاق العمومي والإستثمار الخاص اختبار أثر المزاحمة عبر المعاينة المعادة

Ghassan, Hassan B. (2002): الإنفاق العمومي والإستثمار الخاص اختبار أثر المزاحمة عبر المعاينة المعادة. Published in: Public Administration Journal , Vol. 43, No. 4 (12 July 2003): pp. 727-754.

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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to test and evaluate the crowding-out effect of the investment expenditure in public sector on the investment effort by private sector by using data from Moroccan Economy. After the theoretical background of crowding-out effects in many domains of investment, we introduce the interests variables which express the budget policy of a government and monetary policy of the central bank, and shows the global effective demand addressed to economy. This requires the improvement of a likelihood private investment model and the specification of its shape from a Box-Cox transformation by using the weight average test LM. It has become clear that in the long run term the push effect dominates the crowding-out effect and this leads to a little increase in the elasticity of private investment reaches 0.06%. We have used the bootstrapping methodology to check the signs and the values of crowding-out parameters. Among the main causes which explain this small effect are the investors’ behaviour and their reactions vis-à-vis the real economic data and growth expectation, the nature of national and foreign markets of products and their competitiveness, and the nature and situation of finance market and banks, which has put, some extent, Moroccan economy into a “trap of liquidity” especially during the last few years.

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