Asongu, Simplice and Nwachukwu, Jacinta (2017): Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism. Forthcoming in: Multinational Business Review
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_81188.pdf Download (728kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This study employs interactive quantile regressions to assess the conditional role of foreign aid in reducing the potentially negative effect of terrorism on fuel exports in 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilateral and multilateral aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. Interactive quantile regressions are used. The following findings are established. First, the effects of terrorism are both positive and negative across quantiles and specifications, with the impact most apparent in the highest and lowest quantiles. Second, while bilateral aid consistently decreases (increases) fuel exports at the top (bottom) quantiles, multilateral aid regularly decreases fuel exports in the top quantiles. Third, for negative thresholds in the 50th quartile and 90th decile, interaction effects between bilateral aid and terrorism dynamics are overwhelmingly not significant. Conversely, for transnational terrorism, the interaction effects between multilateral aid and terrorism dynamics significantly have negative thresholds. The hypothesis of a positive threshold is only confirmed for transnational terrorism and multilateral aid at the 90th decile. Justifications for unexpected signs and implications for fuel export policy and the management of multinational companies are discussed. This study contributes to the literature on the role of external flows in reducing the negative externalities of terrorism on development outcomes.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Exports; Foreign Aid; Terrorism; Natural Resources; Development |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F23 - Multinational Firms ; International Business F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F35 - Foreign Aid F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F40 - General O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q34 - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts |
Item ID: | 81188 |
Depositing User: | Simplice Asongu |
Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2017 01:21 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 09:09 |
References: | Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J., (2008. “Terrorism and the world economy”, European Economic Review, 52(1), pp.1-27. Aguirre, I., (2014). “Violence in South Sudan Threatens Chinese Oil Investment”, Global Risk Insights http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Violence-In-South-Sudan-Threatens-Chinese-Oil-Investment.html (Accessed: 11/07/2015). Agwu, E. M., & Taylor, A. R., (2015). CSR as a Strategic Management Tool: Expectations and Realities of Two MNCs in Nigeria in Human Rights and Ethics: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications (Chapter 44), pp. 795-811, IGI Global: Hershey. Akinwale, A. K., (2010). “Integrating the traditional and the modern conflict management strategies in Nigeria”, Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ibadan, Nigeria. Akpan, U., (2014). “Impact of Regional Road Infrastructure Improvement on Intra-Regional Trade in ECOWAS”, African Development Review, 16(S1), pp. 64-76. Akpan, U., Essien, M., & Isihak, S., (2013). “The impact of rural electrification on rural micro-enterprises in Niger Delta, Nigeria”, Energy for Sustainable Development, 17(5), pp. 504-509. Al-Khouri, R., (2015). “Determinants of foreign direct and indirect investment in the MENA region”, Multinational Business Review, 23(2), pp. 148-166. Alon, I., & Martin, M. A., (1998). “A normative model of macroeconomic risk assessment”, Multinational Business Review, 6(2), pp. 10-19. Amavilah, V. H., (2015). “Social Obstacles to Technology, Technological Change, and the Economic Growth of African Countries: Some Anecdotal Evidence from Economic History”, MPRA Paper No. 63273. Anderson, M., (2015), “Global cost of conflict reaches $14.3 tn, says report” , The guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jun/16/global-cost-conflict-reaches-14tn-says-report (Accessed: 27/06/2015). Arellano, M., & Bover, O., (1995). “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Model” .Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), pp. 29-52. Asongu, S. A., (2013). “Fighting corruption in Africa: do existing corruption-control levels matter?”, International Journal of Development Issues, 12(1), pp. 36-52. Asongu, S. A., Anyanwu, J. C., & Tchamyou, V. S., (2017). “Technology-driven information sharing and conditional financial development in Africa”, Information Technology for Development. DOI: 10.1080/02681102.2017.1311833. Asongu, S. A., Efobi, U., & Beecroft, I., (2015). “FDI, Aid, Terrorism: Conditional Threshold Evidence from Developing Countries”, African Governance and Development Institute Working Paper No. 15/019, Yaoundé. Asongu. S. A., & Nwachukwu, J. C., (2017). “The synergy of financial sector development and information sharing in financial access: Propositions and empirical evidence”, Research in International Business and Finance, 40(April), pp. 242–258. Baltagi, B. H., (2008). “Forecasting with panel data”, Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), pp. 153-173. Bandyopadhyay, S., Sandler, T., & Younas, J., (2014). “Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism”, Oxford Economic Papers, 66(1), pp. 25-50. Bader, B., & Berg, N., (2014a). “An Empirical Investigation of Terrorism-induced Stress on Expatriate Attitudes and Performance”, Journal of International Management, 19(2), pp. 163–175. Bader, B., & Berg, N., (2014b). “The influence of terrorism on expatriate performance: a conceptual approach”, International Journal of Human Resource Management, 25(4), pp. 539-557. Bader, B., Schuster, T., & Dickmann, M., (2015). “Special issue of International Journal of Human Resource Management: Danger and risk as challenges for HRM: how to manage people in hostile environments”, International Journal of Human Resource Management, 26(15), pp. 2015-2017. Bader, A. K., Reade, C., & Froese, F. J., (2016). “Terrorism and expatriate withdrawal cognitions: the differential role of perceived work and non-work constraints”, The International Journal of Human Resource Management, DOI: 10.1080/09585192.2016.1233448. Beets, S. D., (2005). “Understanding the Demand-Side Issues of International Corruption.” Journal of Business Ethics, 57 (1), pp. 65-81. Bell, S. R., Clay, K. C., Murdie, A., & Piazza, J., (2014). “Opening Yourself Up: The Role of External and Internal Transparency in Terrorism Attacks”, Political Research Quarterly: doi:10.1177/1065912914527798. Billger, S. M., & Goel, R. K., (2009), “Do existing corruption levels matter in controlling corruption? Cross-country quantile regression estimates”, Journal of Development Economics, 90, pp. 299-305. Biscaye, P., Harris, K. P., Reynolds, T., & Anderson, C. L., (2015). “Relative Effectiveness of Bilateral and Multilateral Aid on Development and Social Outcomes”, Evans School of Policy Analysis and Research (EPAR) Brief No. 294, Seattle, Washington. Black, D., (1990). The elementary forms of conflict management. New York, Plenum Press. Borg, M. J., (1992). “Conflict management in the modern world-system”. Sociological Forum, 7(2), pp. 261-282. Brambor, T., Clark, W. M., & Golder, M., (2006), “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses”, Political Analysis, 14 (1), pp. 63-82. Brockhoff, S., Kieger, T., & Meierrieks, D., (2014). “Great Expectations and Hard Times - The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism”, Journal of Conflict Resolution: doi: 10.1177/0022002713520589. Buckley, P. J., & Boddewyn, J. J., (2015). “The internalization of societal failures by multinational enterprises”, Multinational Business Review, 23(3), pp. 170-187. Caulderwood, K., (2015) “Sub-Saharan Africa Falls Behind In Fight Against Extreme Poverty: World Bank Report”, International Business Times (April 14th 2015). http://www.ibtimes.com/sub-saharan-africa-falls-behind-fight-against-extreme-poverty-world-bank-report-1881460 (Accessed: 19/04/2015). Celso, A. N., (2015). “Zarqawi’s Legacy: Al Qaeda’s ISIS “Renegade””, Mediterranean Quarterly, 26(2), pp. 21-41. Choi, S-W., (2015). “Economic growth and terrorism: domestic, international, and suicide”, Oxford Economic Papers, 67(1), pp. 157-181. Choi, S-W., (2010). “Fighting Terrorism through the Rule of Law?”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54(6), pp. 940-966. Choi, S-W., & Salehyan , I., (2013). “No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: Refugees, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism”, Conflict Management and Peace Sciences, 30(1), pp. 53-75. Costa, A., Hermandez, M., & Sebastian-Gallés, N., (2008). “Bilingualism aids conflict resolution: Evidence from the ANT task”, Cognition, 106 (1), pp. 59-86. De Sousa, J., Mirza, D., & Verdier, T., (2009a), “Trade and the Spillovers of Transnational Terrorism”, Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, 145 (4), pp. 453-461. De Sousa, J., Mirza, D., & Verdier, T., (2009b). “Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighbor Hurt?”, CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7946. Efobi, U., & Asongu, S. A. (2016). “Terrorism and capital flight from Africa”, International Economics, 148(December), pp. 81-94. Efobi, U., Asongu, S., & Beecroft, I., (2015). “Foreign Direct Investment, Aid and Terrorism: Empirical Insight Conditioned on Corruption Control”, African Governance and Development Institute Working Paper No. 15/007, Yaoundé. Enders, W., & Sandler T., (2006). The Political Economy of Terrorism. New York: Cambridge University Press. Enders W, Sandler T & Gaibulloev K., (2011). “Domestic versus transnational terrorism: Data, decomposition, and dynamics”. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), pp. 319–337. Elu, J. U., & Price, G. N., (2010). “Does China Transfer Productivity Enhancing Technology to Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Manufacturing Firms”, African Development Review, 22(1), pp. 587-598. Eubank, N., (2012), “Taxation, Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Lessons from Somaliland”, Journal of Development Studies, 48(4), pp. 465-480. Feridun, M., & Shahbaz, M., (2010). “Fighting Terrorism: Are Military Measures Effective? Empirical Evidence from Turkey”, Defence & Peace Economics, 21(2), pp. 193-205. Gaibulloev, K., & Sandler, T., (2008). “The adverse effect of transnational and domestic terrorism on growth in Africa”, Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), pp. 355-371. Gaibulloev, K., & Sandler, T., (2009). “The impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia”, Economics and Politics, 21(3), pp. 359-383. Gaibulloev, K., & Sandler, T., (2011). “Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe”, Kyklos, 61(3), pp. 411-424. Gailbulloev, K., Sandler, T., & Santifort, C., (2012). “Assessing the Evolving Threat of Terrorism”, Global Policy, 3(2), pp. 135-144. Gardner, K. L., (2007). “Fighting Terrorism the FATF Way”. Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organisation, 13(3), pp. 325-345. Gaub, F., (2014). “The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible”, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, 49(3), pp. 40-53. Gault, J., Spierer, C., Bertholet, J-L., & Karbassioun, B., (1999). “How does OPEC allocate quotas?”, Journal of Energy Finance and Development, 4(2), pp. 137-148. GTI (2014). “Global Terrorism Index: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism”, Institute for Economics and Peace, pp. 2-90. http://www.visionofhumanity.org/sites/default/files/Global%20Terrorism%20Index%20Report%202014_0.pdf (Accessed: 28/04/2015). Gries, T., Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D., (2011). “Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(5), pp. 493-508. Harvey, M., Dabic, M., Kiessling, T., Maley, J., & Moeller, M., (2017). “Engaging in duty of care: towards a terrorism preparedness plan”, The International Journal of Human Resource Management, DOI: 10.1080/09585192.2017.1298651. Heyneman, S. P., (2002). “Defining the Influence of Education on Social Cohesion”, International Journal of Educational Policy, Research and Practice, 3(4), pp. 73-97. Heyneman, S. P., (2008a). “Education, social cohesion and ideology. In Right to Education: Policies and Perspectives, edited by Emin Karip, 89-104. Ankara: Turkish Education Association. Heyneman, S. P., (2008b). “Buying your way into Heaven: The corruption of education systems in global perspective.”, Perspectives on Global Issues, 2 (1), pp. 1-8. Hoffman, A. M., Shelton, C., & Cleven, E., (2013). “Press Freedom, Publicity, and the Cross-National Incidence of Transnational Terrorism”, Political Research Quarterly, 66 (4), pp. 896-909. Huang, S., & John, C., (2017). “FDI Location Choice: The Role of Locational Ambidexterity”, Multinational Business Review, 25(1), pp. Humphreys, M., (2005). “Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution. Uncovering the Mechanisms”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49 (4), pp. 508-537. International Country Risk Guide. (2010) The political risk services group, available at http://www.prsgroup.com/icrg.aspx (Accessed 10 October 2010). Koenker, R., & Hallock, F.K., (2001), “Quantile regression”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, pp.143-156. Koh, W. T. H., (2007). “Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(2), pp. 129-138. Lauring, J., Andersen, P. H., Storgaard, M., & Kragh, H., (2017). “Low Intensity Conflict in MNCs”, Multinational Business Review, 25(1), pp. Le Billon, P., (2015). “Oil, Secession and the Future of Iraqi Federalism”, Middle East Policy, 22(1), pp. 68-76. Le Roux, S., & Kelsey, D., (2015a). “Dragon Slaying with Ambiguity: Theory and Experiments”, Sara le Roux, Department of Economics, Oxford Brookes University. Le Roux, S., & Kelsey, D., (2015b). “Strategic Substitutes, Complements and Ambiguity: An Experimental Study”, Department of Economics, Oxford Brookes University. Love, I., & Zicchino, L., (2006). “Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Panel VAR” .The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(2), pp. 190-210. Mazzarella, J. J., (2005). “Terrorism and Multinational Corporations: International Business Deals with the Costs of Geopolitical Conflict”, Major Themes in Economics, Spring 2005. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.456.9308&rep=rep1&type=pdf (Accessed: 21/03/2017). Meierrieks, D., & Gries, T., (2013). “Causality between terrorism and economic growth”, Journal of Peace Research, 50(1), pp. 91-104. Melly, P., & Darracq, V., (2013). “A New Way to Engage? French Policy in Africa from Sarkozy to Hollande”, Catham House, Africa 2013/01, London. Mirza, D., & Verdier, T., (2008), “International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 36(2), pp. 179-194. Nitsch, V., & Schumacher, D., (2004), “Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), pp. 423-433. Obi, C. I., (2010). “Oil Extraction, Dispossession, Resistance, and Conflict in Nigeria's Oil-Rich Niger Delta”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 30(1-2), pp. 219-236. Öcal, N., and Yildirim, J., (2010). “Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach”, Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), pp. 477-489. Oh, C H., & Oetzel, J., (2016). “Once bitten twice shy? Experience managing violent conflict risk and MNC subsidiary-level investment and expansion”, Strategic Management Journal, 38(3), pp. 714-731. Okada, K., & Samreth, S.,(2012), “The effect of foreign aid on corruption: A quantile regression approach”, Economic Letters, 115(2), pp. 240-243. Onuoba, F. C., (2010). “Oil pipeline sabotage in Nigeria: Dimensions, actors and implications for national security”, African Security Review, 17(3), pp. 99-115. Onyeji, I., Brazilian, M., & Bronk, C., (2014). “Cyber Security and Critical Energy Infrastructure”, The Electricity Journal, 27(2), pp. 52-60. Oreopoulos, P., & Salvanes, K. G., (2009). “How Large are Returns to Schooling? Hint: Money Isn’t Everything.”, NBER Working Paper No. 15339. Piazza, J. A., (2006). “Rooted in Poverty?: Terrorism, Poor Economic Development, and Social Cleavages”, Terrorism and Political Violence, 18(1), pp. 159-177. Piazza, J. A., (2011), “The illicit drug trade, counternarcotics strategies and terrorism”, Public Choice, 149(3-4), pp. 297-314. Piazza, J. A., (2012), “The Opium Trade and Patterns of Terrorism in the Provinces of Afghanistan: An Empirical Analysis”, Terrorism and Political Violence, 24(2), pp. 213-234. Ramcharran, H., (2003). “Estimating the Impact of Risks on Emerging Equity Market Performance: Further Evidence on Data from Rating Agencies”, Multinational Business Review, 11(3), pp. 77-90. Richardson, M., (2004), “A Time Bomb for Global Trade: Maritime-related Terrorism in an Age of Weapons of Mass Destruction”, Maritime Studies, Volume 2004 (134), pp. 1-8. Rodrik, D., (2008). “The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth”, Harvard University, http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/drodrik/Research%20papers/RER%20and%20growth.pdf (Accessed: 29/04/2015). Roodman, D., (2009a). “A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), pp. 135-158. Roodman, D., (2009b). “How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata”, Stata Journal, 9(1), pp. 86-136. Rudra, N., & Jensen, N. M., (2011). “Globalisation and the Politics of Natural Resources”, Comparative Political Studies, 44(6), pp. 639-661. Shahbaz, M., Shahbaz, S., M., Nasir, M. M., & Edward, W. M., (2013). “An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 35(September), pp. 21-29. Shahzad, S. J. H., Zakaria, M., Rehman, M. U., Ahmed, T., & Fida, B. A., (2015) “Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis”, Social Indicators Research, (March, 2015) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11205-015-0950-5 Singh, P., (2001). “Punjab Terrorism: Truth Still Uncovered”, Economic and Political Weekly, 36 (40), pp. 3829-3831. Singh, P., (2007). “The Political Economy of the Cycles of Violence and Non-violence in the Sikh Struggle for Identity and Political Power: implications for Indian federalism”, Third World Quarterly, 28(3), pp. 555-570. Suder G., & Czinkota, M., (2005). “Towards An Understanding of Terrorism Risk in the MNE”, Multinational Business Review, 13(3), pp. 3-23. Taylor, I., (2014). “Chinese interest in Nigeria's oil and the American context”, Canadian Journal of African Studies, 48(3), pp. 391-404. Thomas, K.W., (1992). Conflict and negotiation processes in organisations. In: Dunnette, M.D. and L.M. Hough eds. Handbook of industrial and organisational psychology. Palo Alto, CA, Consulting Psychologists Press. pp. 651–717. Volkema, R. J., & Bergmann, T. J., (1995). “Conflict styles as indicators of behavioural patterns in interpersonal conflicts”. The Journal of Social Psychology, 135 (1), pp. 5-15. World Bank (2015). “World Development Indicators’, World Bank Publications http://www.gopa.de/fr/news/world-bank-release-world-development-indicators-2015 (Accessed: 25/04/2015). |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/81188 |